Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is witnessing favorable developments in Syria, the potential resolution of the Kurdish conflict, and an improving economy. However, significant risks remain, as the stability of Syria could falter, and Erdogan faces political challenges in navigating Kurdish negotiations and U.S. policy shifts. The overall picture is mixed with uncertainties ahead.
In the present geopolitical landscape, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to be experiencing a favorable moment after over 20 years in power. Erdogan’s aspirations extend beyond his current term limits, which conclude in 2028, thanks to several concurrent developments that appear advantageous for his administration. Emre Peker of the Eurasia Group highlights that Erdogan has an unprecedented opportunity to achieve his foreign policy, security, and economic objectives now.
The situation in Syria is notably shifting in Erdogan’s favor. With the ousting of the Assad regime, Erdogan anticipates that the eventual stabilization of Syria will facilitate the return of millions of Syrian refugees back to their homeland, a process that has already seen over 80,000 individuals return. Moreover, Turkey has established a military partnership with the newly formed Syrian government under Ahmad al-Sharaa, which could enhance Turkish influence in the region.
The Kurdish issue, a longstanding source of conflict, might also be nearing resolution. The PKK, Turkey’s primary Kurdish militant group, has indicated a willingness to cease its armed struggle after 40 years. Should this development occur, it would significantly alter Turkey’s internal dynamics and potentially lead to greater peace and stability.
Furthermore, the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine presents additional opportunities for Turkey’s construction sector to engage in reconstruction efforts. Erdogan’s diplomatic efforts with both Russia and Ukraine position Turkey as a potential mediator, which may allow it to benefit economically from this conflict resolution, especially as European alliances evolve amid reduced U.S. defense commitments.
Economically, Turkey shows signs of recovery, with inflation levels at their lowest in nearly two years. The central bank’s cautious interest rate cuts have contributed to a GDP growth of 3.2% last year, surpassing expectations. Nevertheless, significant challenges still loom over these promising developments.
Firstly, the situation in Syria remains precarious and could easily devolve into violence, undermining potential economic benefits for Turkey. The new government’s ability to maintain stability is unproven, and any resurgence in conflict could escalate tensions along Turkey’s borders.
Secondly, achieving a resolution to the Kurdish conflict requires intricate negotiations. Erdogan’s alliance with the right-wing MHP limits his ability to implement necessary constitutional changes or call early elections to extend his rule beyond 2028. Thus, balancing Kurdish autonomy with nationalist sentiments presents another obstacle.
Lastly, the potential shift in U.S. policy under the Trump administration may not yield the benefits Erdogan hopes for. European governments might seek to bolster their own defense industries rather than engage Turkey in their defense spending initiatives. Consequently, Turkey’s reliance on the American security framework, particularly concerning its military base at Incirlik, remains a critical vulnerability.
Overall, while developments currently favor Erdogan, it is essential to maintain a nuanced perspective on the complexities of these geopolitical scenarios and their implications for Turkey’s future on the international stage.
In summary, while Erdogan’s current circumstances appear advantageous due to developments in Syria, potential resolution of the Kurdish issue, and economic recovery, substantial risks and obstacles persist. The stability in Syria is uncertain, the resolution of the Kurdish conflict is fraught with political challenges, and Turkey’s reliance on the U.S. security presence remains a vulnerability. Thus, the outcomes for Turkey are far from guaranteed, necessitating careful navigation of these intricate geopolitical waters.
Original Source: www.gzeromedia.com
