General Abebe Teklehaymanot, a former Ethiopian military leader, predicts an impending war between Eritrea and Ethiopia due to deteriorating relationships. He cites motivations like control over the Assab port and regime change in Eritrea as key factors. The possible involvement of external powers, alongside historical regrets concerning previous conflicts, complicates the situation further.
Recent statements by military leaders and politicians suggest a rising likelihood of conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia following the decline of their previously amicable relationship. The deterioration of ties between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed occurred within a span of three years, although the exact causes remain ambiguous to the public. General Abebe Teklehaymanot, known as Jobe, a former commander of the Ethiopian Defense Force, has been vocal about this trend.
In an interview, Jobe warned that both nations are moving towards war and cited signs such as military mobilizations and accusations between the countries. He underlined the importance of comprehending the motivations behind any forthcoming conflict, crucial for evaluating its potential outcomes. Jobe identified two primary drivers for a possible military confrontation: control over the strategic port of Assab and the desire to eliminate the ruling party in Eritrea, known as the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ).
Jobe remarked on the belief within Eritrean political circles that the U.S. previously endorsed a regime change in Eritrea, which seemed to shift under the Trump administration. Additionally, he suggested that various external powers, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, could potentially intervene in the escalating tensions for their own interests.
Reflecting on historical conflicts, Jobe expressed regret over the missed opportunity to neutralize the PFDJ during the 1998–2000 war, asserting that military capability existed at that time. Disputes among factions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) regarding engagement with Eritrea resulted in internal strife, concluding with the prevailing faction ordering a halt to military advancements and ensuing purges of dissenters.
Jobe further criticized the post-war decision allowing Eritrea to rebuild its military infrastructure, which set the stage for ongoing instability. Following a period without conflict, Abiy Ahmed’s peace initiatives in 2018 quickly devolved, reigniting tensions. Jobe worries that Tigray might emerge as the primary battleground should hostilities erupt between the two nations.
In summary, prominent military figures view impending conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia as increasingly probable. Factors such as past grievances and strategic interests suggest a complex landscape of motivations for potential war, combined with the possibility of foreign intervention that could further complicate the geopolitical situation in the region.
In conclusion, the likelihood of conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia appears to be escalating, fueled by deteriorating diplomatic relations and historical grievances. Insights from General Abebe Teklehaymanot underscore significant motivations that may drive the nations towards war. The prospect of intervention by external powers adds further complexity to the situation. Historical perspectives also highlight missed opportunities for resolution that may have lasting implications in the present geopolitical context.
Original Source: borkena.com
