Hezbollah is experiencing a significant crisis following defeats by Israel, marked by the loss of key figures and resources. The turnout at Hassan Nasrallah’s funeral on February 23 represents a critical opportunity for the group to consolidate its power and deter governmental restrictions. The group’s reliance on Shiite support has been a staple of its legitimacy, and its immediate goals include retaining arms and securing reconstruction funds as it faces heightened scrutiny and potential backlash from the community.
Hezbollah is currently facing a profound crisis, exacerbated by a significant defeat against Israel, resulting in the loss of many fighters, its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and considerable military resources. Furthermore, the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime has disrupted crucial supply routes through Syria, leading to growing criticism within the Shiite community amidst severe economic hardships. The aftermath of Lebanon’s financial collapse in 2019 has left many questioning Hezbollah’s effectiveness, as the conflict has wrought devastation and uncertainty over reconstruction efforts.
The massive turnout at Nasrallah’s funeral on February 23 serves as a crucial lifeline for Hezbollah, potentially reaffirming its domestic strength and deterring government actions to restrict its arms or influence. The group retains substantial support among Lebanese Shiites, demonstrated by its performance in the 2022 elections, where it received approximately 356,000 votes—150,000 more than any other political party. Polling data indicates that between 89 and 93 percent of the Shiite community continues to support Hezbollah, revealing significant political backing.
This robust support stems from the “Nation of Hezbollah” model, which emphasizes engagement and responsiveness to Shiite communities rather than territorial control. This strategy has allowed Hezbollah to sustain its domestic legitimacy within Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing structure. The group’s popularity empowers it to wield considerable influence and aids its survival in an increasingly challenging political landscape.
Hezbollah’s immediate objectives following the war involve retaining its arms and securing reconstruction funding for affected communities. New Secretary-General Naim Qassem acknowledged the ceasefire parameters, proposing limits on arms south of the Litani River while maintaining that the issue of armament across Lebanon should be resolved collectively. Qassem articulated the Lebanese government’s role in attracting reconstruction aid, thereby shifting accountability for the recovery effort away from Hezbollah and onto the state.
Hezbollah’s need for reconstruction funds is paramount, particularly as it faces public anger over perceived failures stemming from the conflict. While Iran has allegedly sent financial aid to Hezbollah, these sums pale compared to the estimated economic damage, which ranges from eight to eleven billion dollars. Complicated dynamics, such as the aftermath of Assad’s regime and increased Israeli threats, further jeopardize Hezbollah’s funding avenues, possibly inciting discontent among its supporters if reconstruction aid falls short.
The outpouring of support at Nasrallah’s funeral, with attendance estimates ranging from 450,000 to as many as 1.4 million, served as a testament to Hezbollah’s perceived strength among its base. Research firm Information International deemed a turnout of 700,000 to 900,000 as the most credible, illustrating that despite dire circumstances, Hezbollah retains significant popular support. This display of unity reinforces its political position and may deter Lebanese authorities from taking action against it.
Consequently, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam may face challenges in addressing the arms control issue, as he has already made concessions to Hezbollah. His administration’s success hinges on navigating Lebanon’s economic recovery, infrastructure repair, and necessary reforms while avoiding infighting. In this precarious political environment, Hezbollah can leverage its support to obstruct any unfavorable government actions regarding its arms or reconstruction aid.
Support for Hezbollah among Lebanese Shiites is pragmatic rather than ideological; many appreciate the group’s social services and security assurances. Nevertheless, Hezbollah has cultivated emotional ties with the Shiite community, making its position relatively secure despite potential opposition. The demonstration of mass support at Nasrallah’s funeral sent a clear signal that any aggression towards Hezbollah would be seen as an affront to the Shiite population as a whole, leaving its future in a pivotal position within Lebanon.
In summary, Nasrallah’s funeral has provided Hezbollah a substantial lifeline amidst its current crisis, showcasing its enduring support among Lebanese Shiites. With critical objectives of retaining arms and securing reconstruction funding, Hezbollah’s ability to navigate the precarious political landscape will be essential. The demonstrated turnout signifies the group’s resilience and strengthens its influence, potentially discouraging government actions against it. Consequently, Hezbollah remains a significant force in Lebanon’s future, despite the challenges it faces.
Original Source: www.atlanticcouncil.org
