A report published in The Lancet indicates that by 2050, India could have over 440 million people classified as overweight or obese, with the highest rates among men and women. The country may also lead in obesity rates in the youth demographic. Experts call for better methods of measuring obesity, stressing the public health crisis’s urgency and implications for national health policies.
A recent global analysis published in The Lancet journal highlights alarming predictions for obesity rates in India. By the year 2050, it is estimated that India may have over 440 million individuals classified as overweight or obese. This figure would place India second globally, following China, with projections indicating 218 million men and 231 million women affected.
This research, part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, involved a collaborative effort from multiple researchers, including those from the Indian Council of Medical Research. As of 2021, there were already close to 180 million overweight and obese adults in India, comprised of 81 million men and 98 million women. Should these trends continue, global obesity rates could escalate dramatically to approximately 3.8 billion adults by 2050.
The authors forecast substantial increases in obesity among children as well, predicting that around 16 million boys and over 14 million girls aged 5-14 years in India may be overweight or obese by 2050. Notably, the study suggests that India will lead in the 15-24 age group, with over 22 million men and nearly 17 million women anticipated to be affected.
Emmanuela Gakidou, the lead author from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, described the situation as “an unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity”. Gakidou emphasized that this is a significant public health issue, urging governments and health organizations to focus on populations that are most at risk and in need of immediate intervention.
This report coincides with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s commitment to address obesity, as he emphasized in his February 23 radiocast. Recognizing the health risks associated with obesity, such as increased incidence of metabolic and heart diseases, he asserted the importance of becoming a healthier nation.
Experts have recently recommended a reevaluation of how obesity is diagnosed, suggesting that relying solely on BMI may lead to misdiagnosis. A Lancet Commission report advocates for additional metrics such as waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio in conjunction with BMI. The researchers proposed two new classifications: ‘clinical obesity’ for chronic conditions linked to organ dysfunction and ‘pre-clinical obesity’ for increased health risk without concomitant disease.
In summary, the study presents a concerning outlook for obesity in India, potentially affecting a vast segment of the population by 2050. The urgent need for effective public health strategies and resource allocation has been highlighted, as obesity-related health risks continue to rise. Action must be taken to address these issues before they escalate further.
The analysis predicts that India may confront one of the highest rates of obesity in the world by 2050, significantly impacting public health. The findings underscore the necessity for comprehensive strategies to mitigate the obesity crisis, emphasizing the importance of systematic and innovative approaches to health measurement and intervention. Prime Minister Modi’s advocacy for addressing obesity aligns with these findings, emphasizing the collective responsibility toward creating a healthier population.
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