Alarming trends within the Lebanese Armed Forces, highlighted by a report from the Alma Research and Education Center, reveal a concerning Shi’itization and collaboration with Hezbollah. President Joseph Aoun’s efforts to portray the LAF as a bulwark against Hezbollah are met with skepticism as analysts cite the military’s declining capacity amidst demographic shifts. Key recommendations include reassignment of Shi’ite officers and strategic international pressure to isolate Hezbollah.
A recent report from the Alma Research and Education Center reveals concerning developments regarding the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in southern Lebanon. The report highlights the increasing influence of Hezbollah over the LAF, raising doubts about its ability to uphold the ceasefire agreement with Israel. Despite Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s assertions that only the state should ensure national security, evidence suggests that this is not the reality on the ground.
President Aoun is currently in Saudi Arabia seeking renewed support for the LAF, previously receiving $3 billion annually until aid was halted in 2016 due to Lebanon’s lack of condemnation of Iranian actions. While Aoun aims to project an image of a unified effort against Hezbollah, analysts are skeptical about the feasibility of this approach. Tal Beeri, head of research at the Alma Center, notes that Aoun’s declarations reflect what Western powers wish to hear, rather than the actual situation.
The report reveals that the LAF is undergoing a significant shift towards a Shi’ite majority, exacerbated by demographic changes and the end of mandatory conscription. This shift has led to a notable decline in Christian recruitment within the military while increasing the number of Shiite soldiers. As a result, the LAF’s ability to function independently from Hezbollah is increasingly compromised.
Cooperation between LAF commanders and Hezbollah operatives is reportedly allowing Hezbollah to bypass international agreements, including U.N. Resolution 1701. The LAF has demonstrated reluctance to confront Hezbollah, particularly regarding the recent ceasefire violations. Additionally, the family connections between LAF soldiers and Hezbollah members heighten concerns about Hezbollah potentially using the LAF’s resources and personnel.
Over the past two decades, substantial U.S. military aid to the LAF, totaling approximately $3 billion, has led to instances of Western-supplied equipment falling into Hezbollah’s hands. This situation casts doubt on claims that the LAF can effectively counter Hezbollah. Analysts are now calling for measures that aim to isolate Hezbollah and curb demographic shifts that favor Shiite recruitment in the military.
Experts suggest that to restore the LAF’s integrity, Shi’ite officers should be reassigned away from southern Lebanon, where they may be more vulnerable to Hezbollah’s influence. While Aoun has significant sway over military appointments, the failures of Shi’ite commanders to fulfill their roles effectively undermine the LAF’s mission. Ultimately, maintaining stability in the region hinges on the LAF’s capacity to operate independently, which is currently in jeopardy.
The report from the Alma Research and Education Center underscores the troubling intertwining of Hezbollah with the Lebanese Armed Forces, raising serious concerns about the latter’s independence and its ability to maintain peace. The demographic shift towards a Shi’ite majority within the LAF, coupled with inadequate leadership, compromises its effectiveness as a national force. To mitigate these issues, strategic changes are necessary to strengthen the LAF and curb Hezbollah’s influence.
Original Source: www.jewishpress.com
