President Umaro Sissoco Embaló of Guinea-Bissau has dissolved parliament and postponed elections, leading to significant political unrest and opposition threats of civil disobedience. Discrepancies concerning the official end of his term further complicate the situation. Amidst efforts by ECOWAS to intervene, his rejection of their mediation raises questions about regional authority and the future stability of Guinea-Bissau.
In December 2019, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló won the presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau, securing a five-year mandate aimed at re-election in 2025. However, in December 2023, he dissolved parliament without scheduling new elections, which opposition parties claim undermines the constitution and his presidency. They have threatened mass protests and civil disobedience until a clear election date is provided.
Additionally, there is a significant dispute regarding the end date of President Embaló’s term. The opposition asserts that his mandate will conclude on February 27, 2025, as prescribed by the constitution, while the Supreme Court controversially extended this date to September 4, 2025. This decision has met with strong resistance from opposition leaders.
In September 2024, Embaló initially announced he would not seek a second term in the upcoming elections but soon suggested a potential reconsideration. This ongoing uncertainty has created a tense political landscape in Guinea-Bissau, leading to unpredictable outcomes.
On March 3, 2025, ECOWAS dispatched a high-level delegation to mediate the political crisis; however, their efforts were cut short when Embaló effectively expelled them. He warned ECOWAS mediators to respect Guinea-Bissau’s internal affairs, signaling his preference for dialogue with France over his own regional organization.
Following this diplomatic setback, Embaló confirmed his intention to pursue a second term in the November elections, demonstrating a blatant disregard for ECOWAS intervention. This situation raises questions regarding ECOWAS’s authority and ability to manage such crises effectively, contrasting sharply with its past interventions in The Gambia and Niger.
President Embaló’s actions have thrown Guinea-Bissau into turmoil, risking his isolated position, particularly in light of potential military intervention. It remains uncertain whether he is relying on French support or has improperly assessed the reliability of international alliances. Observers suggest that he might seek advice from Senegal’s President Macky Sall regarding the true nature of French backing during tumultuous times.
Ultimately, President Embaló’s decisions will influence Guinea-Bissau’s trajectory and impact the credibility of ECOWAS as a stabilizing force within West Africa. It is necessary to scrutinize ECOWAS’s role in such matters to ensure clarity on the boundaries of internal affairs and intervention.
President Embaló’s controversial actions in Guinea-Bissau have intensified the political crisis, undermining both his authority and the role of ECOWAS in addressing such challenges. While he has expressed intentions to seek reelection, his actions contradict previous commitments, prompting skepticism about his stability and alliances. The situation calls for a reevaluation of ECOWAS’s influence and credibility in managing political tensions within member states, with significant implications for the future of West African governance.
Original Source: thepoint.gm
