President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló’s dissolution of parliament in December 2023 has intensified political tensions in Guinea-Bissau, leading to opposition threats of protests. A controversial Supreme Court ruling extended his term amid public unrest over his leadership and relations with ECOWAS and France. The situation raises critical questions about regional authority and the future direction of the nation’s governance.
In December 2019, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló secured a five-year mandate after winning the presidential elections, with intentions to seek re-election in 2025. However, in December 2023, he controversially dissolved the parliament, failing to announce a date for new elections. Opposition factions condemned this action, claiming it was a constitutional breach aimed at consolidating power, and threatened to instigate public protests if a clear electoral timeline was not established.
An additional issue emerged regarding the term’s official end date. The opposition insists that President Embaló’s term should conclude on February 27, 2025, as stipulated by the constitution. In a controversial ruling, the Supreme Court extended his mandate until September 4, 2025, a decision that sparked intense backlash from opposition groups.
Amidst this political turmoil, President Embaló announced in September 2024 that he would forgo running for a second term but later suggested a possible change of heart after discussions with his family. This ambiguity has contributed to the volatile political environment in Guinea-Bissau, leaving many to speculate about impending developments.
On March 3, 2025, an ECOWAS delegation attempted to mediate the escalating political deadlock but was effectively dismissed by President Embaló, who warned them against meddling in the nation’s internal affairs. This encounter highlighted his dismissal of regional intervention and preference for external influence, particularly from French President Emmanuel Macron.
Since the diplomatic incident, the silence from ECOWAS raises critical concerns regarding its ability to exert authority effectively in Guinea-Bissau. Unlike its interventionist stance during The Gambia’s crisis in 2017 or Niger’s turmoil in 2023, the current inaction may set a worrying precedent for future regional interventions.
President Embaló, who once chaired ECOWAS, has shown a concerning lack of leadership in addressing the ongoing crisis, exacerbating Guinea-Bissau’s political strife. The internal rifts within his administration heighten the risk of destabilization, leaving him potentially vulnerable to emerging threats, including military coups.
The pivotal question remains whether President Embaló has secured French backing or if he solely relies on his relationship with President Macron for political survival. It may be prudent for him to seek wisdom from Senegal’s President Macky Sall regarding the reliability of French support under such precarious conditions.
President Embaló’s controversial actions in dissolving the parliament and dismissing ECOWAS’s mediation efforts raise alarming concerns about political stability in Guinea-Bissau. His wavering stance on re-election and the Supreme Court’s extension of his term contribute to the growing turmoil. The situation’s evolution will significantly impact the credibility of ECOWAS as a stabilizing force in West Africa and the future governance of Guinea-Bissau.
Original Source: thepoint.gm
