President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló of Guinea-Bissau faced increased opposition following his 2023 decision to dissolve parliament, inciting threats of protests from opposition leaders. A contentious Supreme Court ruling extended his term, contradicting the opposition’s claims. ECOWAS attempted mediation but was met with hostility, prompting inquiries about its authority. Embaló’s choice to reaffirm his candidacy for re-election and preference for French over ECOWAS support indicates a complex political landscape that impacts regional stability.
In December 2019, Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló won the presidential elections, granting him a five-year mandate aimed towards a re-election in 2025. However, in December 2023, he controversially dissolved the parliament without announcing new elections, inciting allegations from opposition parties accusing him of undermining the constitution and stalling the electoral process to solidify his power. In turn, opposition leaders threatened to launch mass protests and civil disobedience unless an election date is confirmed.
The political discord intensified as a dispute arose regarding the official end date of Embaló’s term. The opposition asserts that his term concludes on February 27, 2025, as stipulated by the constitution. In contradiction, the Supreme Court extended his term to September 4, 2025, provoked by fierce opposition protests and rejection of this ruling.
In September 2024, Embaló announced he would not seek a second term. However, this decision later appeared tentative as he indicated a potential reconsideration after discussions with family. Thus, the political landscape in Guinea-Bissau has become increasingly tumultuous, with unpredictable repercussions looming.
On March 3, 2025, an ECOWAS delegation arrived in Guinea-Bissau to mediate the political deadlock, but the mission was prematurely terminated when President Embaló expelled the team. The delegation faced hostility, and reports indicate Embaló admonished ECOWAS to steer clear of Guinea-Bissau’s internal affairs. This dismissal of ECOWAS was a stark reminder of the regional body’s challenges in influencing local governance.
Subsequent to this diplomatic setback, Embaló informed French President Emmanuel Macron of his intention to run for re-election in the upcoming November elections, illustrating his preference for French involvement over ECOWAS intervention. This choice hints at a potential alliance with France, in contrast to Guinea-Bissau’s colonial legacy with Portugal.
ECOWAS has since maintained an unsettling silence, which raises critical inquiries about its efficacy and influence in Guinea-Bissau. The regional organization must reflect on its capacity to manage such crises effectively, especially considering precedents set by its involvement in The Gambia’s crisis and military conflicts in Niger. The response, or lack thereof, could dictate future interventions in West Africa.
President Embaló, who previously led ECOWAS from 2020 to 2021, has shown alarming negligence in leadership amid this crisis, exacerbating the political turmoil in the country. His actions contribute to a scenario where national instability might isolate him, even against military coup threats.
It remains uncertain whether Embaló has secured French protection or intends to leverage his relationship with President Macron for stability. Engaging with former colleague President Macky Sall of Senegal could provide insight into the reliability of French support in such precarious circumstances. Ultimately, Embaló’s decisions will significantly influence both Guinea-Bissau’s trajectory and the credibility of ECOWAS in pursuit of peace and stability in West Africa.
In summary, Guinea-Bissau’s political landscape is precariously unstable under President Embaló, who faces significant opposition and criticism for his constitutional maneuvers. ECOWAS’s failure to address this crisis raises important questions about its effectiveness in regional governance. Furthermore, Embaló’s inclination towards French interests rather than ECOWAS highlights shifting alliances and underscores the need for clear definitions around intervention in internal affairs. The outcomes of these developments will have long-lasting implications for both Guinea-Bissau and regional stability.
Original Source: thepoint.gm
