The M23 rebellion is advancing quickly in the DRC, capturing key cities and receiving suspected support from Rwanda, leading to a humanitarian crisis. Diplomacy has failed to yield results, with regional tensions exacerbating the conflict. The potential scenarios range from M23’s territorial control to renewed civil war, highlighting the need for a comprehensive peace effort and democratic state-building.
Since late January 2025, the M23 rebellion has made significant advancements in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) after capturing Goma and Bukavu, the capitals of North and South Kivu. This movement, perceived to be supported by Rwanda, has encountered little resistance from the Congolese forces (FARDC) as the European mercenaries withdrew. Additionally, Burundian troops, numbering approximately 10,000 in South Kivu, began a retreat following the M23’s takeover of Kavumu airport and nearby base.
As the M23 advanced southward, they captured Kamanyola toward Uvira, the Kivus’ third-largest city. Concurrently, Ugandan troops entered and seized Bunia, the capital of Ituri, under the pretext of combating the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Despite Uganda’s claims of non-involvement with M23, some reports suggest a potential coordination. Senior Ugandan officials have shown support for M23’s narrative, unlike their stance during the 2012 Goma seizure.
The humanitarian crisis in the DRC has intensified, with thousands displaced due to the violence. Estimates suggest that up to 3,000 people died during the M23’s assault on Goma, exacerbating an already dire situation where 4.6 million Congolese were previously displaced. The risk of violence and mass atrocities remains high, given the prevalence of rebel and militia activities.
Diplomatic calls for a ceasefire by regional bodies, such as the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC), have failed largely due to internal tensions and the M23’s continuation of its advance, which Congolese analysts attribute to the involvement of Rwanda and Uganda. Public sentiment has erupted in protests, leading to the burning of their embassies in Kinshasa.
Experts express that M23 is advancing more swiftly than in previous conflicts, raising the possibility of a march toward Kinshasa. Observers note that M23 appears to have received military support and training between 2013 and 2021, acquiring substantial weaponry and intelligence capabilities attributed to foreign state backing. A UN investigation implicated Rwanda and Uganda, which both deny the allegations.
The conflict has drawn in multiple regional actors, including the Burundian forces, who have been combating M23 alongside Congolese military units and other affiliates. The retreat of the Burundian forces is purportedly to prevent encirclement, as M23 expands its territorial claims, raising questions about the regional power dynamics.
DR Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi has relied on SADC forces to counter M23 under the Southern African Mission in DRC (SAMIDRC). However, SADC troops have faced casualties and are largely confined to bases, marking a shift in the ongoing military engagement. Concerns remain high over potential confrontations between Rwandan and South African forces.
M23 has established governance structures in captured territories and is reportedly recruiting former Congolese government forces. The group is aligned with the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), rallying for political control and increasing its influence over lucrative mining operations. Control over mining enterprises, such as in Rubaya, has augmented M23’s financial resources.
Diplomatic efforts have yielded little success, as regional summits failed to produce a comprehensive agreement or ceasefire. Tensions between the DRC and EAC remain due to Tshisekedi’s actions against the EAC Regional Force. The situation necessitates broad discussions to confront the issue of citizenship for Congolese of Rwandan heritage.
Various plausible scenarios arise from the current context, with potential outcomes ranging from M23’s assertion of control over the Kivus to a protracted civil war mirroring historical conflicts. Experts argue that a thorough democratic institution-building process is critical for resolving DRC’s ongoing problems, advocating for an inclusive national dialogue, akin to the 1992 Sovereign National Conference.
The unfolding crisis in the DRC underscores the deteriorating humanitarian conditions and the complexity of regional dynamics involving multiple actors. The M23’s rapid advancements have raised concerns over potential state collapse and the resurgence of civil conflict. A concerted effort toward negotiated peace and collaboration between regional entities appears necessary to mitigate further violence and address the intricate socio-political issues within the DRC.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
