Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Somalia indicates a significant diplomatic shift resulting from the Ankara Declaration, aimed at normalizing relations following previous tensions. Somalia’s decision not to replace Ethiopian troops with Egypt in peacekeeping efforts marks a new chapter in regional politics, while concerns about the Asmara agreement underscore the ongoing complexities in the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. Analysts call for Ethiopia to organize a peace summit to reaffirm its regional role and stability.
This week, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed conducted a visit to Mogadishu to meet Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, reciprocating the latter’s unexpected trip to Addis Ababa last month. Their interactions follow the signing of the Ankara Declaration in December 2024, which concluded a year marked by tensions that arose from Ethiopia’s Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland. Observers interpret PM Abiy’s visit as a definitive step towards solidifying the relationships that had been severed since January 2024.
During his visit, PM Abiy expressed, “We held extensive discussions on a range of areas including peace and security, economy, diplomacy and potential to build joint infrastructure… We cannot grow in isolation, but together, we can thrive.” His trip signifies progress in implementing the Ankara Declaration while diminishing the relevance of Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland, especially given the new Somali administration’s lack of interest in the agreement.
Somalia has consequently decided against substituting Ethiopia for Egypt in contributing troops to the African Union’s latest peacekeeping operation in Somalia. This week, it was announced that Ethiopian forces will, at least officially, be involved in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia that commenced last month. Analysts view these developments as a significant shift in regional geopolitics, especially following the earlier partnerships formed among Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt.
Constantinos Berhutesfa, a noted political analyst, remarked that intergovernmental relations in the Horn of Africa have historically been unstable, seeing governments shifting from allies to adversaries. He attributes the improved relations between Ethiopia and Somalia to both the Ankara Declaration and growing uncertainty regarding Somaliland’s position on the MoU. Additionally, this rapprochement undermines Egypt’s aim to isolate Ethiopia through its influence in Somalia and Sudan.
Despite the stalled MoU with Somaliland, there remain prospects for Somaliland to gain recognition from the United States and the United Kingdom, with discussions around acknowledging Somaliland’s status gaining momentum. Constantinos emphasized that improved Ethiopia-Somalia relations are mutually beneficial: “Ethiopia is allowed to maintain its peacekeeping force in AUSSOM… The normalization has affirmed this.” However, he cautioned that existing tripartite agreements among Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia complicate the situation further.
The Asmara agreement remains a significant concern, as it represents a shift in Somalia’s alliances and could provoke discontent from Eritrea. “The PM’s visit to Mogadishu is very positive, but it might upset Eritrea,” noted Constantinos. He raised critical questions surrounding future stability in Somalia and the potential actions of Egypt and Eritrea, who previously sought to undermine Ethiopia’s role in the region.
The recent military agreement between the three nations poses a challenge, especially amid Ethiopia’s frustrations regarding Eritrean troop presence in Ethiopian territory, which could spark tensions. Nevertheless, Constantinos believes that war is less likely due to the destructive consequences both countries have previously faced. Instead, he suggests that dialogue and internal stability should be prioritized to strengthen Ethiopia’s influence in regional matters.
He advocates for Ethiopia to organize an international summit focused on resolving regional crises, thereby restoring its international standing. Such a summit could provide solutions for enduring conflicts in the Horn of Africa and reaffirm Ethiopia’s commitment to regional stability through diplomatic channels. Moreover, creating collaborative frameworks amongst various stakeholders, including the African Union and regional civil societies, should ensure the inclusive nature of these discussions.
Could a successful peace and security summit elevate Ethiopia’s image on the continent? Observers note that Kenya has recently assumed the ‘regional stabilizer’ role, further emphasizing Ethiopia’s necessity to reclaim this position given its historical significance as a diplomatic hub in Africa. Strengthening Ethiopia’s involvement in both regional and continental issues remains crucial in the face of emerging threats.
In summary, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s recent visit to Somalia marks a significant moment in the ongoing normalization of relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, especially following the Ankara Declaration. This diplomatic shift reflects a potential realignment of regional alliances, diminishing the relevance of past agreements between Ethiopia and Somaliland. As Ethiopia navigates its complex relationships with neighboring countries, there is an imperative for regional cooperation, stabilization efforts, and an emphasis on collective security to enhance both its standing and security in the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: www.thereporterethiopia.com
