Lebanon and Syria have the chance to reset relations after Assad’s fall, yet sectarian tensions and regional conflicts present serious challenges. Hezbollah faces political setbacks following the regime’s collapse, and fears of renewed violence loom. The new Syrian government’s relationship with Israel could further impact bilateral ties as both nations grapple with instability and seek cooperation amidst ongoing threats.
Lebanon and Syria’s intertwined destinies present an opportunity for renewed relations with the new post-Assad Syrian government, led by interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the Lebanese leadership under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. However, several challenges, particularly sectarian tensions and regional conflicts, threaten the prospect of peace and stability amidst this transition.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, sparked celebrations among many Lebanese due to Syria’s detrimental influence during its occupation lasting from 1976 to 2005. Following the occupation, Syria retained significant control over Lebanon primarily through the paramilitary group Hezbollah, which significantly benefitted from Iranian support, facilitating arms transfers between Iran and Lebanon.
Assad’s ouster, while welcomed by most Lebanese, represented a significant setback for Hezbollah, which lost its essential Syrian backing. Hezbollah’s newfound challenges include diminished military capacity following its earlier confrontations with Israel and the emergence of local and regional opposition. Experts noted that Hezbollah finds itself increasingly isolated and under pressure as the newly established anti-Hezbollah Syrian government emerges.
The political landscape in both countries remains unstable, with Hezbollah encountering rising dissatisfaction among Lebanese citizens over its role in the Syrian conflict, which has economically impacted Lebanon. Hezbollah’s option of supporting presidential candidate Suleiman Frangieh, close to Assad, has also weakened since the regime’s collapse. As political analyst Ali Rizk indicated, the regime’s fall negatively impacted Hezbollah’s political capital in Lebanon.
In the aftermath of Assad’s regime, fears of a resurgence in sectarian violence are palpable, particularly by groups bolstered by Assad’s downfall, threatening both Hezbollah and the Lebanese military. Risk factors associated with newfound radical elements within Syria could further escalate tensions along the Lebanese-Syrian border.
Bilateral relations between Lebanon and Syria will revolve around pivotal issues, including the repatriation of Syrian refugees and the American-administered management of frozen Syrian assets in Lebanese banks. Tensions were evidenced in February 2024 through deadly clashes along the border, complicating government efforts to address these challenges effectively within a context of ongoing instability.
Israel’s actions remain influential on Lebanese-Syrian dynamics, particularly given the new Syrian government’s apparent unwillingness to counter Israeli aggression in the region. Warnings from experts suggest that as long as these Israeli pressures and potential extremist activities from Syria persist, relations may prove challenging for both parties.
Although optimism exists for improved Lebanese-Syrian relations under the new leadership, the fragile and unpredictable regional environment raises concerns. The challenges that the Lebanese and Syrian governments face in asserting control over their territorial integrity would direct their need to engage with mutual threats, ensuring a search for productive diplomatic ties despite underlying tensions.
Regional conflicts threaten to exacerbate existing tensions within Lebanon and Syria, prompting important strategic evaluations from both governments. As geopolitical pressures mount and the stakes grow higher, both nations must navigate this precarious landscape while seeking stability and cooperation.
Lebanon and Syria face a potential opportunity for improved relations following the fall of Assad, though significant sectarian and regional challenges remain. Hezbollah’s loss of Syrian support complicates its position, while fears of sectarian violence rise with radical elements gaining traction in Syria. Ongoing Israeli aggression poses further risks to regional stability as both nations seek to establish stronger diplomatic ties amid a turbulent environment. Going forward, the effectiveness of Lebanon and Syria in asserting territorial rights and responding to mutual threats will be crucial for fostering improved relations.
Original Source: www.newarab.com
