China missed its 2024 climate target as emissions rose slightly despite record renewable energy growth. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 3.4% decline in carbon intensity, below the 3.9% goal, indicating a potential failure to meet Paris Agreement commitments. Analysts suggest it will be challenging to achieve a 65% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030.
China has fallen short of a crucial climate target in 2024, as emissions slightly increased while coal continued to dominate energy production, despite significant growth in renewable energy sources. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 3.4 percent reduction in carbon intensity, which did not meet the 3.9 percent target set by the government. This shortfall places China off track for its commitment under the Paris Agreement to reduce carbon intensity by 18 percent from 2020 to 2025.
Carbon emissions have slightly risen since last year, although the increase is less dramatic than in previous years. Analysts propose that China’s emissions may have already peaked ahead of its 2030 target. However, experts caution that meeting the pledge to reduce carbon intensity by 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030 will be exceptionally challenging. Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, stated, “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in the period 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target.”
Despite being the largest global emitter of greenhouse gases, China is also recognized as a leader in renewable energy. The government aims to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero by 2060. Some experts believe that a slowdown in economic growth combined with rapid renewable energy development indicates that emissions may have plateaued, though definitive conclusions require more data over the coming years.
David Fishman expressed concern regarding the structural conditions necessary for significant emissions reductions, suggesting that coal use will continue to grow slowly even with planned new energy sources like nuclear and hydro coming online around 2030. Meanwhile, ongoing rapid industrial growth continues to drive energy demand beyond what clean energy infrastructure can currently supply. Muyi Yang emphasized that increasing flexibility in the energy market and expanding clean energy infrastructure are essential for reconciling industrial output with sustainable energy practices.
According to the NBS report, total energy consumption rose by 4.3 percent compared to 2023, with coal supplying over half of China’s energy needs, although renewable energy sources experienced substantial growth. Analysts predict that China will soon meet all new electricity demand through renewable sources, after which coal power could decline in absolute terms.
Later this year, Beijing is expected to announce details of its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030, which may include updated emissions and energy targets. Additionally, China had planned to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement in February but missed this deadline. Nevertheless, UN officials anticipate that many nations, including China, will submit their new targets this year.
In sum, China has failed to meet a significant climate target for 2024, with emissions rising slightly and reliance on coal persisting, overshadowing renewable energy gains. The ongoing challenge lies in reconciling industrial energy demands with climate commitments, as analysts express skepticism about meeting future targets. A transition to renewable energy sources may help facilitate emissions reductions if structural reforms are enacted in the energy sector.
Original Source: www.communitynewspapergroup.com
