China has missed a crucial climate goal for 2024, with emissions rising slightly and carbon intensity reductions not meeting targets. The growth of the industrial sector is impeding progress towards climate commitments under the Paris agreement. The nation aims to peak emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060, but significant reforms are necessary to meet these goals.
Recent official data revealed that China has not met a significant climate target for 2024, showing a slight increase in emissions despite record growth in renewable energy sources. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a 3.4% decrease in carbon intensity, which falls short of the anticipated 3.9% reduction. This underperformance has raised concerns regarding China’s commitment to its obligations under the Paris climate agreement, particularly its goal of an 18% decrease in carbon intensity from 2020 to 2025.
Carbon emissions have increased slightly for 2024, leading analysts to speculate that China may have reached peak emissions earlier than the targeted 2030 deadline. However, experts, including Mr. Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, suggest that reaching the Paris goal of a 65% reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels by 2030 will be extremely challenging. He emphasized the need for a further 22% reduction between 2026 and 2030.
China’s status as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases is contradicted by its position as a leader in renewable energy production. While the nation aims to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060, significant industrial growth is hindering progress towards these targets. Senior energy analyst Mr. Muyi Yang noted that energy demand is growing faster than the pace of renewable energy infrastructure development, necessitating reforms to ensure sustainable energy production.
According to the NBS report, total energy consumption increased by 4.3% compared to 2023, with coal continuing to supply more than half of China’s energy needs. Nevertheless, with a substantial increase in renewable energy observed in 2024, Mr. Yang stated, “China is fast approaching the stage where all incremental electricity demand will be satisfied by renewable sources.”
The Chinese government is expected to announce its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 later in 2025, which is likely to include updated emission and energy goals. Furthermore, China was scheduled to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement in February, although this deadline was missed. UN officials have indicated that they expect a majority of NDCs to be submitted by 2025.
In summary, China has fallen short of its climate target for 2024, with emissions rising slightly and carbon intensity reductions not meeting expectations. The nation’s industrial growth continues to pose challenges for achieving climate commitments under the Paris agreement. Moving forward, significant reforms and a focus on renewable energy development will be critical to ensuring sustainable progress in carbon emission reductions.
Original Source: www.straitstimes.com
