China missed a crucial climate target in 2024, as coal dominated energy production despite increased renewable energy. Carbon intensity fell 3.4%, below the 3.9% goal, indicating difficulty in achieving national climate commitments. Analysts express concern over rising emissions, suggesting reinforcements for sustainable energy measures are essential for future progress.
Official data revealed that China did not meet a significant climate target in 2024, with emissions slightly increasing while coal continued to play a dominant role, despite considerable advancements in renewable energy. The data, released by Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics, indicated a 3.4 percent reduction in carbon intensity, which falls short of the 3.9 percent target set by the government. This shortfall places China considerably behind its objective of achieving an 18-percent reduction in carbon intensity from 2020 to 2025.
Moreover, carbon emissions increased slightly compared to the previous year, although this rise was less pronounced than in earlier years. Analysts speculate that China might be nearing its peak emissions ahead of the 2030 deadline. Nevertheless, achieving a substantial decrease in carbon intensity by 2030 remains a daunting task. According to Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in (the period) 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target”.
China, despite being the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is also a leader in renewable energy production. It aims to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060. Some analysts had predicted that reduced growth rates and rapid renewable installation would facilitate emission reductions in 2024. However, a definitive identification of an emissions peak may require several more years of data.
Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of China’s carbon-intensive industrial sector continues to hinder progress toward climate goals. Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst for Asia at think tank Ember, emphasized that “rapid industrial growth has driven energy demand to increase at a pace that outstrips the buildup of clean energy infrastructure”. He advocated for reforms to enhance market flexibility and expand clean energy infrastructure to ensure sustainable energy growth.
According to the NBS, total energy consumption rose by 4.3 percent from the previous year. Coal remains a significant contributor to carbon emissions, supplying over half of China’s energy needs, despite a notable increase in renewable energy contributions. Analyst Yang noted that “China is fast approaching the stage where all incremental electricity demand will be satisfied by renewable sources.”
Beijing is expected to release details of its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 later this year, which will likely outline updated emissions and energy goals. Additionally, in February, it was due to present new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement, aimed at revising its targets and laying out plans through 2035. While the submission deadline was missed, UN officials anticipate most NDCs will be filed this year.
China’s failure to meet its climate target for 2024 reflects ongoing challenges in balancing industrial growth with carbon emissions reduction. Official data indicate that while reductions in carbon intensity were recorded, they fell short of targets, suggesting that significant efforts are still needed to adhere to commitments under the Paris Agreement. As China moves forward with new policies and plans, there is urgent need for enhanced focus on sustainable energy solutions to meet future goals.
Original Source: www.france24.com
