China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the nation missed a crucial climate target in 2024, experiencing a slight rise in emissions as coal usage persisted despite increased renewable energy. Carbon intensity fell by 3.4 percent, not meeting the target of 3.9 percent, and raising concerns about progress towards its Paris Agreement commitments. Analysts stress that reaching future emissions reduction goals will be challenging, given the current growth trajectory and reliance on coal.
According to official data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country failed to meet a critical climate target in 2024, witnessing a slight increase in emissions. The continued dominance of coal, despite record contributions from renewable energy sources, has led analysts to express concern over China’s adherence to its commitments under the Paris Agreement. Carbon intensity decreased by 3.4 percent, falling short of the official target of 3.9 percent, indicating China’s lack of progress in reducing emissions per unit of GDP.
The emissions figure reflects a deviation from China’s ambitious goal of an 18 percent reduction from 2020 to 2025, raising questions about whether the country is nearing peak emissions ahead of its 2030 target. Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, emphasized the challenging situation, stating, “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in (the period) 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target.”
Amidst being the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China also leads in renewable energy advancements. The nation aims to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060, with some analysts predicting stabilization in emissions due to slumping growth and rapid renewable adoption. However, discrepancies in structural conditions necessary for a significant emissions decline remain, according to David Fishman, a senior manager at the Lantau Group.
Moreover, industrial growth has resulted in elevated energy demand, outpacing the development of clean energy infrastructure. Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst for Asia at Ember think tank, noted that the surge in industrial activity has hindered the nation’s progress toward climate objectives, stating, “Rapid industrial growth has driven energy demand to increase at a pace that outstrips the buildup of clean energy infrastructure.”
As noted in the NBS report, total energy consumption increased by 4.3 percent compared to 2023, with coal comprising over half of the energy sources, albeit with a notable rise in renewable energy contributions. Yang asserted, “China is fast approaching the stage where all incremental electricity demand will be satisfied by renewable sources,” indicating a potential decline in coal power once this threshold is surpassed.
Beijing is expected to reveal details regarding its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 later this year, which will likely encompass new emissions and energy objectives. Furthermore, the country was anticipated to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in February under the Paris Agreement, although this deadline was missed. Nevertheless, UN officials remain optimistic that most NDCs will be submitted within the current year.
In summary, China’s failure to meet its climate target in 2024, coupled with the rise in emissions due to coal reliance and industrial growth, poses significant challenges for achieving its Paris Agreement commitments. Analysts highlight the difficulty in attaining future carbon intensity reduction goals, as the country strives for a balance between economic growth and sustainable energy development. The forthcoming Five-Year Plan and updated NDCs may provide clearer pathways toward meeting these targets.
Original Source: www.news-journal.com