The US-Russia summit in Riyadh will focus on key geopolitical issues including the Ukraine crisis, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and the future of the Middle East. Trump’s negotiation strategies are aimed at securing strategic advantages, raising concerns among European nations. Effective pressure on Russia is crucial to achieving a meaningful resolution and preventing unilateral Russian terms, which would affect global stability.
The forthcoming US-Russia summit in Riyadh is poised to influence significant geopolitical dynamics. Key topics for discussion will include the Ukraine crisis, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and the evolving Middle East peace process, particularly post-Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Economic issues, security concerns related to China’s presence in the Gulf, and vital global trade routes will also feature prominently.
A notable characteristic of this summit is the absence of crucial stakeholders such as the European Union and Canada, affected by the war in Ukraine. From the perspective of President Trump, recognized for his negotiation skills, this summit is an opportunity to secure strategic advantages without involving what he considers peripheral players. This even extends to leveraging the position of Ukrainian President Zelensky.
Trump’s grand strategy encompasses a wide array of negotiations, including controlling Ukraine’s mineral resources and potentially redefining regional influences favorably for Russia, while limiting China’s influence. The revival of Arctic shipping routes, which Trump views as significant for global trade, is also on the table. However, this raises fears in Europe and Ukraine about potentially detrimental agreements made without their knowledge.
Trump has famously expressed his determination to swiftly conclude the conflict in Ukraine. Reflecting this stance, former national security advisor Keith Kellogg proposed a peace plan that included halting military support to Ukraine unless negotiations commenced with Moscow, while warning Russia of possible escalations should they refuse to negotiate.
Approximately five months later, Kellogg’s appointment as special envoy by Trump signals prioritization of Ukraine and Russia in the administration’s agenda. Nevertheless, Russian officials rebuffed these overtures, asserting that any plan presented would be dismissed if it did not align with their interests. Russian President Putin seems resolute, anticipating eventual supremacy in the conflict without concessions.
Russia demands Ukraine’s permanent neutrality, recognition of occupied territories, and the lifting of sanctions among other conditions—demands that Ukraine and its European allies deem unacceptable. Such demands also raise alarm in the Indo-Pacific region, where nations oppose any resolutions perceived to endorse Russian victories, fearing the implications for China’s behavior regarding Taiwan.
Despite Trump’s intention for meaningful negotiations, any agreement must entail significant concessions to establish peace. Therefore, it is paramount that the US approaches these negotiations with strategic leverage, compelling Russia into genuine discussions rather than superficial agreements.
The US must implement a strategy of greater pressure on Russia to facilitate negotiations. Trump is likely to employ a similar approach to his previous “maximum pressure” strategy regarding Iran, which significantly weakened Iran’s economy and its ability to support militant groups.
While this model achieved relative success with Iran, applying it to Russia presents challenges due to its substantial resilience in the face of sanctions. Russia continues to thrive economically and structurally, demonstrating its adaptability despite Western efforts.
Moreover, unlike Iran, Russia’s robust assets, such as its vast natural resources and military capabilities, complicate the effectiveness of sanctions. Thus, Trump’s tools for securing a resolution may not stem from economic measures alone, but from his negotiation prowess, facilitating an agreement that allows Russia to maintain partial territorial control while ensuring Ukraine’s neutrality.
For Trump’s administration to realize a sustained resolution, a long-term strategy is fundamental, preventing Russia from unilaterally delineating peace terms. A commitment to counteracting a Russian victory carries strategic significance not only for Europe but globally.
Achieving durable peace in Ukraine could convey a powerful message about the US’s resurgence as a formidable leader on the world stage, indicating its readiness to engage robustly with global challenges, thereby shaping future international dynamics.
The upcoming US-Russia summit in Riyadh is critical for global geopolitics, addressing multiple issues including the Ukraine crisis and Iran’s nuclear ambitions. President Trump’s negotiation strategies will significantly shape the outcomes, demanding careful consideration of Russia’s formidable position. For a lasting resolution, the US must leverage its stance to prevent Russia from dictating terms and ensure a balanced agreement that promotes stability in the region and beyond.
Original Source: www.dailynewsegypt.com
