Turkmenistan is preparing to start natural gas shipments to Turkey via a swap deal with Iran. The arrangement, confirmed by both Turkmenistan and Turkish officials, is set to begin by March 1, 2025, involving an initial volume of approximately 2 billion cubic meters. This agreement highlights Turkey’s ambition to become a gas hub while noting Turkmenistan’s growing dependence on Iran for gas exports.
Turkmenistan is poised to initiate natural gas shipments to Turkey within weeks, a long-discussed goal. Recent developments indicate that a swap agreement involving Iran has been established for the gas transit, as reported by Turkmenistan’s state information agency TDH. The head of Turkmenistan’s Halk Maslahaty, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, communicated the agreement details with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, emphasizing the arrangement with Turkey’s BOTAS company.
Due to the absence of a direct pipeline linking Turkmenistan to Turkey, the swap arrangement requires Turkmenistan to deliver gas to Iran, which will then supply an equivalent amount to Turkey. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar confirmed on X that gas flow is expected to commence on March 1, 2025, although specifics regarding the volume of gas were not disclosed. Turkish officials previously mentioned an anticipated initial delivery of approximately 2 billion cubic meters (bcm).
Turkey has been working on finalizing this deal for over two years, intending to transform itself into a key gas hub for European markets. Previous high-level discussions included Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s meeting with Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov in December 2022, seeking a direct pipeline from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan and subsequently to Turkey. Although those discussions did not yield a pipeline agreement, alternative methods of transporting Turkmen gas were further explored.
Despite the progress on this swap arrangement involving Iran, Turkey remains focused on developing a pipeline that could ultimately enhance Turkmen gas volumes to Turkey up to 15 bcm. The Turkish Ambassador to Ashgabat indicated a long-term aspiration to acquire 300 bcm of Turkmen gas over the following 20 years. This new agreement serves as a positive development for Turkmenistan but showcases its increasing reliance on Iran for gas exports.
Since gaining independence in late 1991, Turkmenistan’s primary gas pipelines ran north toward Russia, with exports continuing until a recent expiration of agreements in 2024. The country has previously relied on pipelines to Iran, including two built in 1997 and 2010, collectively capable of transporting 20 bcm. However, a pricing disagreement in late 2016 disrupted these shipments, which have not yet resumed.
Currently, the only significant gas export goes to China at about 35 bcm annually through three pipelines, completed over a decade ago. With limited options, Turkmenistan has increasingly engaged in swap agreements with Iran, including arrangements to supply 1-2 bcm of gas to Azerbaijan and a recent deal for 10 bcm to Iraq, pending the resumption of shipments. The condition of existing pipelines to Iran remains uncertain, necessitating maintenance and new construction efforts to raise Turkmen gas deliveries to 40 bcm.
Iran, needing Turkmen gas, faces connectivity issues with its northern region, relying on these swap deals to fulfill its imports. While beneficial for Turkmenistan’s economy, which heavily depends on gas revenues, these agreements hinge on the reliability of aging infrastructure and the political relationships between Turkmenistan and Iran. The support of Iran’s regime towards regional conflicts has also raised concerns about the stability required to maintain these vital gas agreements.
In conclusion, Turkmenistan is set to begin natural gas shipments to Turkey soon via a swap agreement with Iran. This deal marks an essential step for Turkey toward becoming a gas hub and serves as a crucial development for Turkmenistan’s economy. While reliant on Iranian pipelines, the sustainability of these agreements depends on the political and infrastructural stability of both nations.
Original Source: timesca.com
