Ecuador’s February 9 election results have raised alarms for the United States. President Daniel Noboa narrowly leads against Correa-backed candidate Luisa Gonzalez, leading to a key runoff. With high stakes for regional politics, a victory for Gonzalez could shift Ecuador towards a leftist alignment, drawing parallels to Venezuela. Noboa must address pressing issues of violence and energy crises to secure his re-election.
Ecuador’s recent election, held on February 9, poses significant challenges for the United States and the broader goal of democracy in Latin America. The leftist populist party, associated with former president Rafael Correa—a staunch ally of the Venezuelan regime—performed better than anticipated. The upcoming runoff on April 13 could potentially see the election of Luisa Gonzalez, the candidate aligned with Correa.
President Daniel Noboa, 37, who belongs to one of Ecuador’s wealthiest families, previously predicted a comfortable victory. However, he secured only 44.2% of the vote, narrowly edging out Gonzalez, who garnered 43.9%. The third-place candidate, Leonidas Iza of the Pachakutik party, received 5.3%, thus positioning Pachakutik voters as crucial for the runoff outcome.
The stakes are considerable for both the Trump administration and regional nations regarding Ecuador’s election. A potential victory for Correa’s party signifies a decisive leftward shift in policy. As an unwavering supporter of Correa, Gonzalez would likely align Ecuador more closely with leftist populism reminiscent of Venezuela and Cuba, as noted by former Ecuadoran president Jamil Mahuad.
Correa, who was president from 2007 to 2017, fled Ecuador after being convicted of corruption. His administration had a contentious relationship with the U.S., illustrated by the closure of an American anti-narcotics base and the implementation of laws perceived to attract organized crime. Political scientist Santiago Basabe believes Gonzalez is favored in the runoff due to the substantial vote consolidation between Noboa and herself in the first round.
Consultants, such as Jaime Durán Barba, express surprise at Noboa’s tighter-than-expected race. While he remains optimistic about Noboa’s chances, he highlights the complexity of garnering support from Pachakutik voters, who prioritize cultural identity over conventional political ideologies. This represents a significant hurdle for Noboa’s re-election efforts.
As campaign activities unfold, Noboa faces urgent challenges, particularly escalating drug-related violence and an ongoing energy crisis. The rising homicide rate in Ecuador is a pressing concern for voters. To steer his campaign effectively, Noboa must engage indigenous constituents and secure strong support from the Trump administration and neighboring Latin American countries.
Ultimately, if Noboa fails to act decisively, Gonzalez may emerge victorious in the upcoming election. Many Ecuadorans retain positive memories of Correa’s presidency, which benefited from a surge in oil prices. However, it is essential to remember that his administration’s legacy is marred by corruption and the rise of drug-related crime. The election results may lead to complications for U.S. foreign policy and regional stability.
The recent election in Ecuador places the United States in a position of concern regarding the potential rise of leftist politics under Rafael Correa’s party. The runoff contest between Noboa and Gonzalez is critical, especially with growing public apprehensions about drug violence and governance. Noboa’s ability to effectively court indigenous voters and respond to pressing national issues will be pivotal in determining the election’s outcome. Should Gonzalez win, U.S.-Ecuador relations might face significant strain, complicating regional geopolitics.
Original Source: buenosairesherald.com
