Lebanon honors the 20th anniversary of Rafic Hariri’s assassination amidst changing political dynamics. The weakening of Hezbollah’s power may allow for a resurgence of his son, Saad Hariri. The current political landscape features a newly elected president and prime minister and reflects a growing potential for Saad Hariri’s return to politics against the backdrop of regional shifts.
On February 14, 2025, Lebanon commemorates the 20th anniversary of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri’s assassination, amidst a shifting political landscape that has diminished Hezbollah’s power and may facilitate a revival of his son, Saad Hariri’s political career. Hariri, a pivotal figure in Lebanon’s post-civil war reconstruction, was killed shortly after resigning as prime minister in 2005, and a UN-backed court recently sentenced two Hezbollah members to life imprisonment in absentia for their involvement in the attack, although Hezbollah refuses to surrender them.
Saad Hariri, who has served three terms as prime minister and currently resides in the UAE, returns to a Lebanon that has undergone significant changes. His presence at the annual commemorations coincides with an impending deadline related to a Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire, which has sparked concerns regarding the stability of the fragile truce after Lebanon’s rejection of Israel’s demands concerning military positions.
On this anniversary, several thousand supporters of Rafic Hariri gathered near his burial site to show their allegiance. Supporters, like homemaker Diana Al-Masri, expressed their joy in celebrating the fallen regime of Syria and the return of Sheikh Saad to Lebanon. Saad Hariri’s potential political comeback is under discussion, as opinions among his supporters suggest a desire for his return to active political life, although he is not expected to resume such activities immediately.
Saad Hariri’s political influence has waned over the years, particularly due to strained relations with Saudi Arabia after he displayed a conciliatory stance towards Hezbollah. He notably resigned in 2017 while in Riyadh, citing Iranian influence, which led to international intervention to return him to Lebanon. After resignations in 2019 and 2022 amid nationwide protests, Saad Hariri announced a suspension of his political functions, attributing it to Iranian influence.
Recent developments highlight a changing political dynamic. Joseph Aoun was elected president, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam recently formed a new government. With Saudi Arabia re-engaging in Lebanese politics, there is a call for robust Sunni leadership to counterbalance Hezbollah’s influence. This situation provides an opportunity for Saad Hariri to evaluate his capacity to reclaim leadership among Sunni constituents in Lebanon, particularly given the historical context of his father’s assassination and the subsequent opposition to Syrian presence in Lebanon.
As Hezbollah attempts to maintain political relevance, they find themselves challenged in the context of shifting alliances and diminishing Iranian backing. Furthermore, there are emerging complications stemming from accusations regarding arms transfers via Beirut’s airport, amidst blocked landings of Iranian aircraft. The legacies of both Hariri father and son continue to shape the political landscape as Lebanon navigates its complex realities amidst these changes.
Lebanon’s commemoration of Rafic Hariri’s assassination marks a pivotal moment as the country grapples with an evolving political environment. The weakening of Hezbollah’s influence, contrasted with potential reinvigoration for Saad Hariri, signifies a critical juncture in Lebanese politics. Hariri’s anticipated return may galvanize Sunni support amid broader geopolitical shifts involving regional stakeholders like Saudi Arabia, hinting at new dynamics within the Lebanese political framework.
Original Source: www.arabnews.com
