Recent analysis questions the achievability of the 1.5°C climate target, suggesting that accountability should be allocated based on historical emissions and capacity to act. The study introduces “additional carbon accountability” to clarify which countries bear responsibility for surpassing climate targets. The results reveal significant adjustments are necessary for high-emission countries like the EU, China, and the U.S. to align with climate goals. Political will remains a critical factor in meeting these challenges.
In recent discourse, the viability of the 1.5°C climate target has come under scrutiny, with propositions of its demise featured in prominent outlets such as The Guardian and Bloomberg. A study published in Nature Communications scrutinizes how accountability for limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C can be allocated among countries, based on the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibility and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) established under the UNFCCC. This principle asserts that while all nations bear a responsibility to combat climate change, their duties differ based on their historical emissions and capabilities to take action.
To quantify responsibility, the study introduces the concept of “additional carbon accountability,” which assesses countries’ obligations beyond current climate targets by comparing their past emissions and future climate commitments against equal cumulative per capita emissions. Notably, should countries fulfill their existing national climate targets, it is projected that the 1.5°C fossil carbon budget will be surpassed by 576 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO₂). As such, the European Union, China, the United States, and 15 other nations must enhance their current targets significantly, emphasizing expedited mitigation efforts along with carbon dioxide removal strategies such as afforestation and technological solutions including direct air capture and biochar.
For illustrative purposes, the European Union would need to further mitigate or remove an additional 48 GtCO₂, in addition to fulfilling its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2030 and its net zero targets by 2050. In comparison, China’s additional carbon accountability stands at 150 GtCO₂, while that of the United States is 167 GtCO₂. Although no universal framework exists to implement the fairness principles outlined in the Paris Agreement, the newly proposed indicator, rooted in the CBDR-RC principle, offers critical clarity regarding the accountability of various countries concerning the emissions reduction gap. Such insights are pivotal in annual climate finance negotiations during UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP) meetings.
The analysis further reveals that high-income nations possess considerable carbon debts, while several upper-middle-income countries, along with those within BRICS, are projected to have substantial future emissions. Although significant advocacy has centered on compelling wealthy nations to diminish emissions, it is important to note that high-income countries contribute approximately 26% of planned future emissions, whereas upper-middle-income nations account for a higher 38%. For countries like China and Iran, making stringent reductions could significantly impact their accountability levels, while the United States and the EU, with higher historical emissions, will need to resort to more rigorous targets and carbon dioxide removal measures to ensure negative emissions.
Through an evaluation rooted in individual accountability rather than divisions between developed and developing countries, this study assesses the financial implications of attaining accountability goals through carbon reduction or removal at $150 per tonne of CO₂. The results reveal steep costs: Iran’s total accountability amounts to 1,200% of its GDP in 2021, followed by 530% for Russia, 130% for China, 110% for the United States, and 41% for the European Union. This analysis highlights the necessity of establishing responsibility for maintaining long-term 1.5°C viability according to the CBDR-RC principle, sparking discussion on whether nations are prepared to embrace this responsibility.
However, a lack of political will currently hampers high-income countries’ focus, primarily aiming to meet existing targets without addressing past carbon debts. Furthermore, collective agreement on practical applications of the CBDR-RC principle remains elusive. Consequently, it is doubtful that countries such as Russia and Iran would undertake substantial emissions reductions or accept accountability for their historical emissions.
Despite today’s pessimism regarding political willingness to enhance national climate plans and net-zero targets, such circumstances can shift. Each fraction of a degree in global temperature bears significance, and the proposed accountability indicator may also apply to other temperature thresholds, including 1.7°C or 2.0°C. The findings can be effectively utilized to exert pressure on nations proposing significant future emissions to hold those with substantial carbon debts accountable for their past actions.
The study emphasizes the urgency for countries, particularly high-income nations, to reevaluate their climate commitments as a means to align with the 1.5°C target. By introducing the concept of additional carbon accountability, the authors underscore the disparate responsibilities that nations hold based on historical emissions and future commitments. Ultimately, political will and accountability are vital in realizing effective climate action and ensuring that the global community works collaboratively to mitigate climate change.
Original Source: www.climatechangenews.com
