Ecuadorians will vote on February 9 amid escalating concerns of crime and violence outweighing other issues. President Daniel Noboa has declared a state of emergency in response to criminal activities, achieving some reduction in homicides but facing criticisms for incomplete strategies. Political corruption and the entrenchment of crime groups threaten the democratic process, while candidates offer contrasting approaches to security reform. A comprehensive strategy is needed to combat organized crime effectively and restore stability in Ecuador.
As Ecuadorians prepare to vote on February 9 for a new president and national assembly, security and crime are overriding other concerns such as energy shortages and unemployment. The country has transitioned from an oasis of peace to experiencing a 430% rise in homicides, a doubling of femicides, and significant increases in youth violence and extortion over the past five years. This escalating violence is profoundly affecting the daily lives of Ecuadorians and has international ramifications, particularly regarding migration and organized crime.
In response to violent attacks in Guayaquil in early 2024, President Daniel Noboa declared an “internal armed conflict,” designating 22 criminal groups as terrorist organizations. He instituted a state of emergency, deploying military forces and asserting military control over prisons to disrupt these groups’ leadership. Although Noboa’s policies have successfully reduced homicides by 16.5% within the year, they have been criticized for being incomplete and have inadvertently intensified violence in some areas.
Amid criticism of human rights abuses linked to military intervention, the government’s Plan Fénix captured several crime leaders. However, this high-value targeting (HVT) approach has left the lower ranks of organized crime intact. Resulting power struggles among remaining criminal factions such as Los Lobos, Los Choneros, and their splinter groups have exacerbated violence, spreading to new regions like Durán and Manabí, thereby complicating the security landscape.
Ecuador’s criminal organizations have diversified their operations beyond drug trafficking into areas like extortion and illegal mining. Extortion, often referred to as “vacunas,” coerces businesses and citizens to pay fees to avoid harm, functioning as a method of control rather than mere profit. The control that criminal groups exert over certain sectors poses significant challenges for local governance and economic activity.
The targeting of crime has unintentionally shifted the dynamics between Ecuadorian crime groups and powerful transnational organizations. Previously reliant on local partners like Los Choneros and Los Lobos, international cartels now engage with various local groups, leading to intense rivalries as these factions vie for contracts. This fragmentation risks increasing violence as groups seek to establish dominance in a changing landscape of crime.
Political interference by crime groups has intensified, leading to increased violence against political figures and erosion of state authority. The assassination of political candidates opposing criminal influences has become common, and the government’s connections with organized crime have been highlighted in corruption scandals. The existing justice system suffers from inefficiency, corruption, and intimidation, complicating efforts to restore order.
Despite these challenges, President Noboa’s hardline policies have found favor among the populace, reflected in his high approval ratings. As the election approaches, candidates like Luisa González offer contrasting visions for security—Noboa continues with military-backed strategies, while González proposes community-focused approaches aimed at justice reform and rebuilding trust in local law enforcement.
To effectively diminish the power of criminal groups, a comprehensive security strategy is essential. This should involve transitioning from a focus on high-profile criminal leaders to dismantling operational structures at all levels. Strengthening the judicial system, enhancing law enforcement capabilities, and investing in socio-economic initiatives are crucial components of this strategy to address organized crime effectively.
Additionally, expanding law enforcement efforts to include a broader range of criminal activities is vital for disrupting funding and political influence tied to organized crime. Initiatives to modernize critical security infrastructure, in line with human rights considerations, will bolster state capacity. Collaborating with international partners and emphasizing community engagement will be essential to ensuring sustainable security measures and overcoming Ecuador’s current challenges with organized crime.
Ecuador is currently facing a significant crisis, marked by rising crime rates and violence that have overshadowed other pressing issues such as economic stability and unemployment. Once celebrated as a peaceful nation, Ecuador has now encountered alarming increases in homicides and other violent crimes. This chaotic environment has not only destabilized the country internally but has also impacted its relations with the United States, particularly regarding organized crime and migration challenges.
The upcoming elections in Ecuador occur against a backdrop of dire security challenges driven by organized crime. While the government’s hardline approach has yielded some results, a more comprehensive strategy is necessary to address the root causes of violence, dismantle criminal networks, and invest in judicial and societal reforms. Candidates differ in their proposals to tackle these problems, highlighting the need for a concerted and multifaceted response to restore peace and security in Ecuador.
Original Source: www.brookings.edu
