Carmit Valensi emphasizes that Israel should set conditions for withdrawing from its buffer zone in Syria, asserting that exceeding a six-month stay could have adverse effects. The EU’s roadmap for lifting sanctions against the new Syrian regime, led by Abu Mohammed al-Julani, increases pressure on Israel for withdrawal. Valensi recommends enhancing border security and establishing diplomatic channels with the new regime.
Carmit Valensi, the head of the Northern Arena program at the Institute for National Security Studies and a former IDF intelligence officer, asserts that Israel must establish conditions for withdrawing from its buffer zone in Syria; a prolonged presence exceeding six months could yield negative repercussions. In an interview with The Jerusalem Post, she outlined recommendations for Israel’s policy towards Syria.
The European Union recently proposed a roadmap for easing sanctions against Syria, with the aim of encouraging the new regime led by Abu Mohammed al-Julani of Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) towards democratic reforms aligned with Western values. This announcement represents a substantial step toward normalization, following Julani’s recent ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
As the West increasingly aligns with Julani, who has indicated his regime’s intention to respect the 1974 armistice with Israel, pressure on Israel to withdraw from Syrian territory is likely to intensify. Since entering Syria after the Assad regime fell, the IDF has established a buffer zone along the Israel-Syria border to respond to the new security dynamics.
On Tuesday, the IDF announced the implementation of enhanced facilities on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon to better serve soldiers during harsh winter conditions. Defense Minister Israel Katz has since argued for the indefinite retention of the buffer zone due to the continuing uncertainties in the region.
Valensi, in a recent publication by the INSS, highlighted that the evolving situation in Syria presents both challenges and opportunities for Israel. She suggested that, for long-term strategic advantages, Israel should strive to stabilize Syria under a moderate regime that curtails Iranian influence and mitigates threats from terrorist factions.
To pursue this goal, Valensi recommended creating a new border defense strategy which would encompass the buffer zone’s status and the UN force’s role in the region. She emphasized the inadequacy of existing UN peacekeeping arrangements, suggesting enhanced partnerships with the new Syrian government and Turkey, which has considerable sway over the regime.
In addition, she noted that certain Druze villages near the Israel-Syria border (which maintain positive relations with Israel) could contribute to security. Valensi urged Israel to initiate preliminary communications with the new Syrian administration to preserve its interests in the Golan Heights and beyond.
Israel maintained contacts with various Syrian rebel factions during the civil war and provided medical support to rebels on its territory. IDF sources confirmed reports of ongoing dialogues with officials affiliated with HTS, which facilitated the swift return of stolen UN items after a recent incident.
Valensi proposed that Israel communicates through diplomatic channels regarding the temporary nature of its presence in Syria, contingent upon ensuring its security interests. Key conditions for withdrawal might include maintaining a stable border environment and preventing infiltrations or weapons smuggling by Hezbollah.
Furthermore, she suggested that the regime demonstrate respect for minority rights and prevent more radical jihadist groups connected to HTS from nearing the Israeli border. Establishing connections with positive elements within Syria and delivering targeted humanitarian aid was also recommended.
Additionally, forming strategic relationships with Turkey, a vital player in Syria, was deemed crucial, coupled with strengthening ties with Jordan and Gulf States to guide Syria’s reconstruction positively. Valensi encouraged the creation of an international quadrilateral committee consisting of Israel, Turkey, the United States, and Russia to stabilize the new regime and support minorities.
In conclusion, Valensi asserted that Israel must balance its security resolve with astute diplomatic initiatives, utilizing the current opportunity to enhance stability in Syria while bolstering its security and regional standing for the future.
The article discusses Israel’s strategic considerations regarding its military presence in Syria following the rise of a new regime led by Abu Mohammed al-Julani. It highlights the geopolitical complexities and security dynamics affecting Israel’s policy, particularly in light of the European Union’s recent diplomatic moves towards normalizing relations with Syria. Valensi’s expertise guides the discussion on Israel’s potential strategic responses, including calls for conditionally withdrawing from the buffer zone.
The Israeli strategy concerning its buffer zone in Syria must be carefully tailored, focusing on establishing clear conditions for withdrawal while safeguarding national security interests. The evolving relationship with the new Syrian regime presents both risks and opportunities. Engaging in diplomatic initiatives and forming alliances could bolster Israel’s standing while ensuring stability on its borders.
Original Source: www.jpost.com
