The M23 armed group is gaining control in eastern DRC, aided by Rwandan support amidst weaknesses in the Congolese army. With significant patient inflows in hospitals and 230,000 people displaced, the situation is dire. Military experts express doubts about the FARDC’s defenses, while concerns arise over the implications of U.S. political changes on regional dynamics.
The M23 armed group continues to expand its control in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, currently tightening its hold on the provincial capital, Goma. Experts attribute this advancement to the inadequacies within the Congolese army and support from Rwanda, prompting concerns over a potential assault on Goma, a region rife with valuable minerals and long-standing conflict.
Recent months have witnessed a significant escalation in clashes between M23 and Congolese armed forces (FARDC). According to United Nations reports, over 230,000 individuals have been displaced since January due to the violence, leading to an increased patient influx in hospitals. The Congolese army has acknowledged a strategic setback, linking the M23’s advancements to Rwandan military involvement.
A July report from a UN expert indicated the presence of 3,000 to 4,000 Rwandan soldiers actively supporting the M23, asserting that Rwanda maintains de facto control over the group’s operations. Despite this, the Rwandan government has not publicly admitted to any military aggression against the DRC.
In early January, the M23 captured Masisi, a critical administrative center approximately 80 kilometers from Goma. Clashes are now taking place within 10 kilometers of the city. Occupying the surrounding hills for nearly two years, M23’s control over Minova port threatens Goma’s economy, and military observers express doubts about the FARDC’s capacity to mount an effective defense.
The UN peacekeeping force in Goma, MONUSCO, has yet to confirm its course of action should Goma fall. A recent Angola-mediated peace initiative that involved discussions between Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame was terminated due to disagreements.
Reagan Miviri, a researcher at the Congolese Ebuteli Institute, remarked that the absence of successful peace negotiations leaves the M23 with further leeway to advance towards Goma. Furthermore, there are concerns regarding the implications of potential political changes in the United States, particularly regarding Trump’s return to office, which could influence Rwanda’s strategic decisions.
The eastern DRC is characterized by an abundance of natural resources and a multitude of competing militias, enduring cycles of violence since the regional wars of the 1990s. The M23 group, formed in 2012 from a military mutiny, previously captured Goma before being driven out by the Congolese army with international support.
Despite the loss of territory by the M23, it has re-emerged since late 2021, while the FARDC has struggled to regain lost ground. Remi Dodd of RANE Network emphasizes the considerable hurdles faced by the Congolese military, which include corruption, a lack of adequate equipment, and low morale and discipline.
In addition, the inefficacy of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) troops in North Kivu has attracted criticism. These reinforcements consist of soldiers from South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi, and their ineffectiveness has become increasingly apparent in addressing the conflict, exacerbating the ongoing challenges in the region.
The ongoing conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has deep historical roots, with various armed groups vying for control and the exploitation of the region’s abundant mineral resources. The M23 emerged from earlier conflicts, drawing on the ethnic and political complexities inherent in the region, particularly involving the Tutsi population. Rwanda’s involvement in DRC conflicts exacerbates diplomatic tensions while complicating regional security dynamics. The United Nations has voiced concerns over the humanitarian impact of the violence, with hundreds of thousands displaced and significant strains on local infrastructure, including hospitals. Previous attempts at peace negotiations have stalled, reflecting the challenges of reconciling differing interests. Efforts by international actors, including the United States and Angola, have been insufficient to halt the violence or secure a lasting peace. Given the longstanding instability and the renewed aggressiveness of armed groups like the M23, the situation remains precarious, with the potential for further escalations that threaten the region’s socio-economic fabric.
The M23 group’s advances in eastern DRC signify a critical danger to Goma and its surroundings, bolstered by Rwandan military support amid debilitating weaknesses within the Congolese army. Observers are concerned about the potential for intensified conflict, which could aggravate the humanitarian crisis further. The international community’s inability to mediate a sustainable peace agreement could lead to increased violence in a region already plagued by instability and conflict. The upcoming political climate in the United States may also impact Rwanda’s approach, raising uncertainties regarding future developments.
Original Source: www.barrons.com
