US Envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut amidst a shaky ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, alongside Lebanon’s impending presidential elections. His discussions aim to address the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon as well as to propose a 60-day extension to the ceasefire to facilitate compliance with the agreement. The ongoing political struggle in Lebanon has intensified as multiple candidates emerge for the presidency, with Joseph Aoun being a primary candidate supported across various factions, while tensions with Hezbollah continue.
US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Amos Hochstein, has arrived in Beirut amid a precarious situation regarding the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as an approaching presidential election in Lebanon. His visit follows his discussions in Saudi Arabia and marks a critical period for Lebanon, where a deadline for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon approaches. The recently negotiated ceasefire agreement stipulates that Hezbollah must reposition north of the Litani River and that the Lebanese army will deploy in the south alongside UN peacekeepers.
The ceasefire holds inherent rights for both Israel and Lebanon to defend themselves under international law, yet it appears increasingly tenuous, especially following recent Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah rocket launchers. During his time in Beirut, Hochstein is expected to propose extending the ceasefire by another 60 days to allow for the completion of the withdrawal of Israeli troops, set to be finalized by January 25.
As Lebanon prepares for its presidential vote, scheduled for January 9, there is ongoing diplomatic engagement, particularly with Saudi Arabia. Hochstein’s meetings have focused on resolving Lebanon’s dire political situation, characterized by more than two years without a president. Notable discussions in Riyadh included meetings with Lebanese officials and evaluations of military ties between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.
The presidential election landscape is shifting, with Joseph Aoun, currently the Lebanese Army Chief, emerging as a front-runner, backed by respect across political factions. Conversely, Samir Geagea, a significant political figure and critic of Hezbollah, remains a contentious candidate. Hezbollah has notably stated it does not oppose Joseph Aoun’s candidacy but firmly opposes Geagea’s. Lebanon’s parliament must secure a two-thirds majority for any presidential candidate to be elected, indicating a challenging electoral process ahead.
The political situation in Lebanon is currently volatile, with the national leadership void persisting since October 2022. Amid increasing tensions with Israel and ongoing hostilities involving Hezbollah, Lebanon is grappling with significant political upheaval as it approaches its presidential elections. Hochstein’s role in negotiating ceasefire agreements is pivotal, given that these agreements also affect broader regional stability. The ceasefire not only impacts military dynamics but also influences political negotiations as Lebanon seeks resolution to its prolonged presidential vacuum.
In conclusion, Amos Hochstein’s visit to Beirut is a momentous event as Lebanon faces a critical juncture in both its ceasefire with Israel and its upcoming presidential elections. The complex interplay of military and political factors underscores the challenges Lebanon confronts in achieving stability. As various political candidates vie for the presidency, the support dynamics within the fractious Lebanese parliament will dictate the path forward for the country’s governance and security situation. Hochstein’s efforts to extend the ceasefire may provide much-needed breathing space, yet may also reflect the intricate balance of power between competing political factions within Lebanon.
Original Source: www.al-monitor.com
