On December 11, 2024, Turkey mediated a pivotal peace agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia, aiming to resolve tensions stemming from a controversial naval base deal. This declaration marks a commitment to cooperation, sovereignty, and economic growth, although challenges such as nationalist opposition and Somaliland’s aspirations remain. Turkey’s growing diplomatic role signals a new phase in regional politics, emphasizing the importance of sustained collaboration for peace.
On December 11, 2024, Turkey facilitated a notable peace agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia, marking a significant diplomatic achievement. This reconciliation was reached during high-level talks in Ankara, reflecting Turkey’s increasing influence in the Horn of Africa. Both nations have pledged to set aside previous tensions and work towards cooperative growth after a year of hostilities, garnering support from international bodies including the UN, the US, and the African Union.
The initial discord between Ethiopia and Somalia originated from a controversial Memorandum of Understanding signed in January 2024. This deal granted Ethiopia access to an area along Somaliland’s coastline for a naval base, prompting fears in Somalia regarding potential recognition of Somaliland as independent. The ensuing diplomatic crisis drew international support lines, with Somalia receiving military backing from Egypt and other regional allies, while Ethiopia found proponents in Uganda and Kenya.
In a bid to mend relations, Turkey launched the ‘Ankara Process’, initiating dialogues on July 1, 2024. Multiple rounds of discussions culminated in the Ankara Declaration, whereby both nations committed to respecting each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Ethiopia’s access to the sea was secured alongside plans for bilateral commercial arrangements, slated to be negotiated by February 2025. This agreement signals Ethiopia’s intent to bolster its economic recovery by fostering stability and cooperation with Somalia.
The agreement, however, carries dual implications for Somalia. It seeks to improve Somalia’s security landscape amidst threats from Al Shabaab while promoting a narrative of peaceful conflict resolution. Nonetheless, the government may face backlash from nationalist groups opposed to perceived compromises on sovereignty. Furthermore, the active promotion of Somalilander independence by its newly elected president complicates the bilateral dialogue.
Strikingly, the potential for US recognition of Somaliland poses an additional challenge. Such acknowledgment could undermine Somalia’s position, particularly as Somaliland has proposed establishing a US military base to strengthen its claims. The ambiguity surrounding Ethiopia’s naval objectives remains, although recent diplomatic engagements with France may indicate ongoing maritime aspirations.
Turkey’s role as a mediator illustrates its expanding diplomatic reach in Africa. The success of the Ankara Declaration relies heavily on the commitment of all parties involved and effective management of domestic sentiments in Somalia. As Ethiopia and Somalia engage in this diplomatic reconciliation, continued support and dialogue will remain essential for sustained peace and stability in the region.
The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa has been characterized by longstanding tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, particularly surrounding issues of territorial integrity and regional influence. The conflict escalated significantly after Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland, prompting external intervention from neighboring countries and international powers. Turkey’s role emerged as a pivotal mediating force in the region, aiming to foster dialogue and stability amidst the tensions, while various stakeholders seek to navigate their interests and concerns within this fraught geopolitical context.
In summary, the Ankara Declaration represents a crucial step toward diplomatic reconciliation in the Horn of Africa. It underscores Turkey’s ascending role as a mediator in regional conflicts while highlighting the complex interplay of national interests among Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland. The sustainability of this agreement will largely depend on the commitment of all involved parties to respect the terms agreed upon and address domestic opposition in Somalia, indicating a critical moment for both nations moving forward.
Original Source: www.idsa.in
