Turkey’s strategic involvement in Syria under Erdogan has been reinforced by the fall of Assad, positioning Ankara to capitalize on the situation through its influence over rebel factions like HTS. While Erdogan sees opportunities to expand Turkish interests and repatriate refugees, the potential for instability and conflict remains a critical concern, likely shaping Turkey’s future role in the region.
This article delves into Turkey’s strategic maneuvering during the Syrian Civil War, particularly under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s administration. Following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Erdogan perceives an opportunity for Turkey to enhance its regional influence, largely by supporting the rebel coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Although Assad’s ousting may strengthen Turkey’s position against rivals like Iran and Russia, it also poses significant risks. The potential for instability and extremism in post-Assad Syria, along with the looming threat of ISIS resurgence, means that Turkey will have to contend with the ramifications of its involvement in the conflict while seeking to stabilize the war-torn region. Erdogan’s ambition to repatriate Syrian refugees and fortify Turkey’s political standing in the Middle East will hinge on how a new government in Syria manages the complexities of governance and social cohesion following a decade of profound strife.
Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian Civil War has been characterized by a complex balancing act of supporting opposition forces while managing its strained relationships with regional and international powers, notably the United States, Russia, and Iran. Initially, Turkey sought regime change in Syria, leading to a contentious foreign policy that alienated many of its allies. As Assad’s regime faced mounting pressure and eventually fell, Turkey emerged with newfound opportunities but also an array of challenges that could threaten its aspirations in the region.
In conclusion, Turkey’s role in the Syrian Civil War has culminated in a significant moment following Assad’s departure. While Erdogan stands poised to leverage this shift to bolster Turkey’s regional influence and manage the return of Syrian refugees, the associated risks of instability and extremism present daunting challenges. The future of Syria and Turkey’s relationships with both the new government in Damascus and external powers will ultimately dictate whether Turkey’s current position leads to long-term benefits or unforeseen complications.
Original Source: www.foreignaffairs.com
