This article discusses the potential for hurricanes hitting Florida in November due to rising ocean temperatures. It highlights that if the current tropical storm develops into Hurricane Sara, it will mark the fourth hurricane in a single season and the fourth to land in November in recorded history. The piece outlines previous hurricanes in November and the unique weather patterns contributing to these anomalies.
In recent developments, the warming of ocean waters is contributing to an increase in the likelihood of hurricanes impacting Florida during November. This potential change in hurricane patterns is underscored by the formation of a storm in the Caribbean that may become Hurricane Sara. Remarkably, if it strikes Florida, it would be the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the state during a single season, a situation that has only been paralleled once since records began, in 2004. More notably, it would also mark the fourth hurricane to reach Florida in November, a rarity in the recorded history of hurricanes, which dates back 173 years. Throughout the history of hurricane documentation, only three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida during November: one unnamed hurricane in 1935, Hurricane Kate in 1985, and Hurricane Nicole in 2022. The statistics reveal that despite November typically being a month where oceanic temperatures decrease and disable conditions favorable for storm formation, recent observations show that ocean temperatures remain unusually warm, similar to peak temperatures in September and October. Ryan Truchelut, an expert from WeatherTiger in Tallahassee, highlighted the situation, stating that “Total oceanic heat content of the Gulf has slightly increased in the last three weeks, hovering around mid-October norms; the heat content of the Caribbean remains well above what it would typically be at the peak of the season in mid-September.” Among the notable hurricanes that affected Florida in late November, Hurricane Nicole landed on November 10, 2022, as a Category 1 storm, inflicting significant damage across several regions. Similarly, Hurricane Kate reached Florida on November 22, 1985, initially as a Category 3 and causing further devastation, while the unnamed hurricane in 1935 impacted the state with high winds and fatalities. Additionally, nine tropical storms have made landfall in Florida during November, although many weakened prior to making landfall. The rising sea temperatures have prompted an analysis of late-season hurricanes, as storms such as Hurricane Eta, which peaked as a Category 5 before weakening, and Hurricane Otto, which did not make landfall in the United States, illustrate a shifting trend in hurricane behavior. With the official hurricane season lasting until November 30, the potential for future storms remains a critical concern for Floridians and forecasters alike.
The Atlantic hurricane season, running from June 1 to November 30, typically sees the development of storms peaking in late summer and early fall. However, the phenomenon of hurricanes striking Florida in November is infrequent. With climate changes resulting in warmer ocean temperatures, there has been an observed increase in the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall during this typically quieter period. Understanding historical patterns and projections becomes essential for anticipating and preparing for future storms.
In summary, the increasing ocean warmth may lead to more frequent hurricanes impacting Florida in November, a month typically characterized by lower storm activity. As observed with recent storms such as Hurricane Nicole, the record of hurricanes making landfall during this time is limited. The implications of warmer ocean temperatures extend beyond local impacts, highlighting the necessity for continued monitoring and adaptive strategies to mitigate hurricane-related risks.
Original Source: www.staugustine.com
