Tropical Storm Oscar disintegrated en route to the Bahamas after bringing devastation to Cuba, where it made landfall as a hurricane, resulting in six fatalities and heavy rainfall. While its remnants may still affect the Bahamas with rain, the storm’s unpredictable nature raises concerns about hurricane forecasting amidst an active Atlantic hurricane season characterized by heightened activity.
Tropical Storm Oscar has disintegrated as it proceeded toward the Bahamas, following its impact on Cuba where it made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane. The storm resulted in the tragic loss of at least six lives and caused significant rainfall on an island already grappling with a substantial power outage. As of Tuesday afternoon, Oscar’s remnants were positioned approximately 75 miles (115 kilometers) east-southeast of Long Island in the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds reduced to 35 mph (55 kph), traveling northeast at 12 mph (19 kph), as per reports from the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Forecasters anticipate that the remnants may bring up to four inches (10 centimeters) of rain across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Notably, Oscar is recognized as the smallest recorded hurricane, characterized by a wind field measuring only about six miles (10 kilometers) in diameter. This storm was particularly unexpected; it made landfall on Grand Inagua Island in the Bahamas on Saturday, followed by a second landfall in eastern Cuba on Sunday, after which it abruptly changed direction and returned to the Bahamas. Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist and storm surge expert, reflected on the situation, noting “it is not often we see a colossal failure in hurricane forecasting,” indicating that predictions had not anticipated Oscar’s escalation into a hurricane. In Cuba, the storm induced over 15 inches (38 centimeters) of rain in some regions on Monday, prompting warnings about severe flooding and potential landslides. The fatalities occurred in Guantánamo. The timing of Storm Oscar’s approach was especially difficult for Cuba, which was still recovering from an extensive power blackout that had escalated into minor protests, compounded by government advisories denoting that any unrest would face repercussions. Oscar is recognized as the 15th named storm and the 10th hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30. Meanwhile, long-range models indicate the potential for another storm to develop in the central Caribbean in approximately one week, as stated by Lowry, who suggested, “one last gasp may be in store for the Atlantic as we turn the calendar to November.” The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had previously forecasted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season due to record-warm ocean temperatures, estimating 17 to 25 named storms, including four to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. In parallel developments, Hurricane Kristy in the eastern Pacific Ocean has strengthened and is expected to avoid land as it continues to intensify. At present, it is situated 590 miles (950 kilometers) west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, moving west at a speed of 18 mph (30 kph) with maximum sustained winds reaching 75 mph (120 kph), according to the hurricane center, with no coastal watches or warnings currently in effect.
Tropical Storm Oscar’s formation and subsequent intensification into a Category 1 hurricane underscores the unpredictability of hurricane forecasting. It shed light on the vulnerabilities faced by Caribbean nations, particularly Cuba, which has been enduring power infrastructure challenges. The storm brought significant rainfall, posing risks of flooding and landslides, especially in regions already coping with associated crises. The current Atlantic hurricane season has been characterized by an above-average activity outlook due to elevated sea surface temperatures, indicating an ongoing risk for additional storm development in the region.
In summary, Tropical Storm Oscar’s rapid development and subsequent disintegration reveal critical issues pertaining to hurricane forecasting and preparedness, particularly within vulnerable nations like Cuba. The loss of six lives amidst the storm’s impact and ongoing power crisis further highlights the intertwined nature of climate-related disasters and structural challenges. With predictions of further storm activity, continued vigilance and preparedness remain essential for affected regions.
Original Source: apnews.com
