A recent study indicates that climate change has likely increased the global area burnt by wildfires by over 15% between 2003 and 2019, particularly in regions such as central Australia and southeastern South America. The research highlights significant yearly increases in burnt area attributed to climate change and contrasts these findings with previous studies suggesting a decline due to human activities. The researchers call for urgent climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts in light of these findings.
A recent attribution study has revealed that the influence of climate change has likely led to an increase in the global burnt area due to fires by over 15% between 2003 and 2019. This study highlights a year-on-year increase of approximately 0.22% in burnt area attributable to climate change, with central Australia experiencing the most substantial rise. Chantelle Burton, a researcher at the Met Office Hadley Centre and a co-author of the study, stated, “Our study demonstrates that when fires do occur, the influence of climate change with drier and warmer weather conditions is increasingly significant.” Distinct from previous research, which often failed to quantify climate change’s overall effect on fire regimes, this study aimed to ascertain the extent of climate change’s impact on burnt areas. Seppe Lampe, a PhD researcher from Vrije Universiteit Brussel, articulated the objective, saying, “We wanted to quantify the amount of burnt area we could attribute to climate change. It is no secret that climate change is affecting wildfires. However, how much climate change is affecting it, we don’t know. This is what we wanted to answer.” The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has acknowledged that anthropogenic climate change has probably augmented fire weather conditions across numerous regions of the world. Nonetheless, prior studies have indicated a reduction in global burnt area, particularly in savanna regions, attributed to land-use changes such as agricultural expansion. For example, research published in Science in 2017 noted a nearly 25% decline in global burnt area from 1998 to 2015. Utilizing global fire-vegetation models, Burton and her colleagues analyzed the impacts of climate change and socio-economic factors on wildfires across various biomes. Their findings indicated a notable increase in global burnt area, equating to a 15.8% rise due to climate change from 2003 to 2019. Fire-prone areas including Australia, South America, Western North America, and Siberia showed significant increases: 22% in northern Australia, 30% in southeastern South America, 18% in west Siberia, and 15% in western North America. Lampe further explained the implications, stating, “Some of these regions are sparsely populated, forested regions that are poorly adapted to fires. If longer periods of warm and dry weather become more frequent here, they will lead to bigger fires.” Conversely, densely populated areas may experience more robust firefighting measures, potentially mitigating the impact of larger fires. In specific African regions, burnt areas increased by 20.3% in central Africa, 2.7% in western Africa, and 12.4% in northeastern Africa due to climate change. The researchers noted that climate change-induced increases in burnt areas were observed in 35 out of 43 IPCC regions, with 13 regions facing an annual rise of over 0.5% from 1980 to 2019. In contrast, human activities have led to a reduction in burnt area by approximately 19%, resulting in an overall slight decrease of 5% in global burnt area. Lampe emphasized, “For now, human activity has a bigger effect on reducing burnt area than climate change is increasing it. We do find that the effect of climate change is increasing (0.2 per cent per year), which implies that in the coming decades, this balance will reverse.” The study concludes that while the net global change remains modest, significant regional disparities exist where the effect of climate change already surpasses that of human activities, particularly in central Australia, southern South America, and west Siberia. The researchers advocate for urgent climate change mitigation efforts and strategic adaptation measures to address the escalating risk of larger wildfires in the future.
This article discusses the findings of a new study evaluating how climate change influences the occurrence and extent of wildfires across the globe. It emphasizes the growing trend of increased burnt areas due to climate change from 2003 to 2019, particularly in vulnerable regions, and contrasts this with past research which suggested a decline in burnt areas due to agricultural land-use changes. The study underscores the need for a better understanding of the relationship between climate change and fire dynamics.
In summary, the study indicates a significant increase in the global burnt area due to climate change, with projections suggesting this trend will continue. While human activities currently play a larger role in reducing burnt areas, the increasing influence of climate change necessitates proactive global efforts to combat rising fire risks. As these changes manifest regionally, the researchers urge for immediate mitigation and adaptation strategies to better manage future wildfire scenarios.
Original Source: www.downtoearth.org.in
