The conflicts over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have intensified, with Egypt aligning itself with Somalia and Eritrea against Ethiopia’s dam project crucial for its economy. Amid alliances shifting in the Horn of Africa, Egypt’s reliance on outdated treaties has not kept pace with current geological realities, prompting fears of regional instability and armed conflict if negotiations do not evolve.
The intensifying tensions surrounding Egypt’s response to Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) have brought forth considerations of potential military confrontation between the two nations. Egypt has allied itself with Somalia and, more discreetly, with Eritrea in opposition to Ethiopia’s advancements concerning the GERD, which is pivotal to Ethiopian economic aspirations as it is responsible for over 85% of the Nile’s water supply. The reliance of Egypt on antiquated agreements, specifically the 1929 treaty and the 1959 accord, fails to recognize the contemporary political landscape and the rights of upstream nations such as Ethiopia. Historically, Egypt’s alliances with South Sudan and Uganda between July 2014 and August 2022 bolstered its stance against Ethiopia. However, local resistance in South Sudan, particularly from the Nuer community with connections to Ethiopia, hindered Egypt’s endeavors. The recent geopolitical evolutions have seen Somalia and Eritrea, once perceived as unlikely partners, forming alignments with Egypt due to two fundamental factors. Firstly, the agreement between Somaliland—an unrecognized autonomous region of Somalia—and Ethiopia has been considered a threat by the Somali government, which maintains that Somaliland is part of its territory. Consequently, Somalia has threatened to take various measures, potentially military actions, to disallow Ethiopia from accessing vital seaports through Somaliland. This situation has urged Somalia to cultivate a strategic alliance with Egypt to mitigate Ethiopia’s burgeoning influence. Secondly, discontent from the Fano militia, an armed group from Ethiopia’s Amhara region, regarding the peace accord with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has drawn it closer to Eritrea, where it has received military training and support. This cooperation presents an opportunity for Cairo to exacerbate instability in Ethiopia by supplying military resources to both Somalia and the Fano militia through Eritrea. In response, Ethiopia has suspended its airline flights to Eritrea amidst tensions regarding flight operations and financial blockages by the Eritrean government. Such actions reflect deteriorating relations that could precipitate broader conflicts in the region. Egypt’s calculated military responses, underpinned by its strategy to curb the GERD’s construction, pose a significant threat of regional destabilization. The longstanding opposition by Egypt against Ethiopia’s dam commenced soon after its announcement in 2011, but the situation escalated following the accession of Dr. Abiy Ahmed as Prime Minister in 2018. It is imperative for Egypt to reconsider its insistence on outdated treaties and to adopt a collaborative approach that addresses the rights and needs of all involved countries. Engaging proxy forces to undermine Ethiopia is not a sustainable resolution; rather, a comprehensive, mutually beneficial agreement is essential to avert ongoing conflict over the Nile waters.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has become a focal point of contention between Egypt and Ethiopia, affecting regional dynamics significantly. The Nile has historically been a source of tension due to the differing priorities and agreements made before the current geopolitical climate. Ethiopia views the dam as crucial for its national development, while Egypt fears that it may diminish its historically allocated water rights as outlined by colonial-era treaties.
In summary, the brewing tension surrounding the GERD highlights the need for a reevaluation of Egypt’s positional strategy towards Ethiopia. The persistently old agreements do not adequately reflect the current realities, prompting the necessity for a forward-looking, equitable resolution to tensions surrounding Nile water usage. Both nations are encouraged to move away from adversarial postures and work collaboratively towards a sustainable solution.
Original Source: www.radiotamazuj.org
