A new study published in *Nature* warns that overshooting the 1.5°C global warming limit could lead to irreversible climate impacts, especially with rising sea levels. It emphasizes the need for swift emissions reductions and the deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies to mitigate future risks and highlights the importance of ambitious climate pledges from nations ahead of the upcoming summit in Brazil.
Recent research published in Nature presents a stark warning concerning the potential consequences of temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement. Even if global temperatures can be reduced after an overshoot, certain climate impacts, especially those related to sea level rise, will remain irreversible. The study, which is the conclusion of a three-and-a-half-year initiative financed by the European innovation fund HORIZON2020, investigates ‘overshoot’ scenarios where global temperatures briefly surpass the 1.5°C limit before ultimately being lowered through achieving net-negative carbon dioxide emissions. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, who led the study and serves as the Integrated Climate Impacts Research Group Leader at IIASA, emphasizes the flawed perception that a temporary overshoot could equate to a scenario where measures to reduce warming were implemented more decisively and earlier. “This paper does away with any notion that overshoot would deliver a similar climate outcome to a future in which we had done more, earlier, to ensure to limit peak warming to 1.5°C,” he stated. He urges more decisive action during this critical decade to minimize emissions and mitigate potential damages. The study highlights that allowing temperatures to exceed 1.5°C has significant consequences. However, striving for net-zero emissions globally can substantially curtail the severity of outcomes, such as reducing projected sea level rise by approximately 40 cm by the year 2300, compared to scenarios where temperatures stagnate. Joeri Rogelj, co-author of the study and Director of Research at the Grantham Institute, remarks, “Until we get to net zero, warming will continue. The earlier we can get to net zero, the lower peak warming will be, and the smaller the risks of irreversible impacts.” Furthermore, the paper underscores the necessity for all nations to commit to more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of the upcoming climate summit in Brazil. It asserts that while there are viable pathways to limit warming to 1.5°C in the long term, it is essential to prepare for the possibility of higher temperature increases. This necessitates the implementation of substantial carbon dioxide removal technologies alongside aggressive emissions reductions. Gaurav Ganti, a research assistant at IIASA, noted, “There’s no way to rule out the need for large amounts of net negative emissions capabilities, so we really need to minimize our residual emissions.” In summary, the research highlights the immediate need for global action to curtail emissions and prepare for future challenges. It stresses that without urgent intervention, the ambition of reaching net-zero emissions could be jeopardized, with severe implications for climate stability.
The topic of climate change and global warming, particularly concerning the limit of 1.5°C established by the Paris Agreement, is of significant importance to global environmental policy. The agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, ideally to 1.5°C. However, recent studies indicate that even brief overshoots of this limit can have lasting and potentially irreversible effects on the climate, prompting an urgent call for global emissions reductions and innovative carbon removal strategies to mitigate future risks.
In conclusion, the findings of the recent study stress the critical need for immediate and coordinated action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. The potential consequences of allowing temperatures to exceed the 1.5°C threshold, such as irreversible climate damage, underline the urgency of adhering to ambitious reduction targets. The role of carbon dioxide removal technologies will be paramount in addressing the challenges posed by climate change and achieving a sustainable future.
Original Source: www.eurasiareview.com
