Mozambicans will vote in elections expected to be easily won by the ruling Frelimo party, despite the vigorous support for independent candidate Venâncio Mondlane among young voters. Frelimo has been in power since 1975, and while checking its grip on power, analysts predict that the electoral environment favors the incumbent. Issues such as voter suppression and a reported number of ghost voters hinder fair competition, although Mondlane’s candidacy has energized opposition.
Mozambicans are preparing to participate in elections on Wednesday, where the ruling Frelimo party is anticipated to secure a straightforward victory, amidst a presidential race that has been notably invigorated by an unconventional candidate appealing to the country’s youth. Frelimo has been in power since 1975, following the end of Portuguese colonial rule. This election marks the first time Frelimo has introduced a presidential candidate, Daniel Chapo, who was born after Mozambique gained independence. Chapo, previously a relatively obscure provincial governor, was selected in May to succeed the current president, Filipe Nyusi. The primary opposition to Frelimo has traditionally come from the Renamo party, noted for its historical role in a civil war which lasted from 1977 until 1992 resulting in the loss of approximately one million lives. However, the landscape has shifted with Venâncio Mondlane, an independent candidate who defected from Renamo in June after unsuccessful attempts to dethrone its leader, Ossufo Momade. Mondlane has successfully engaged younger voters, capturing significant attention through his charismatic oratory during late-night rallies. Political analysts predict that Frelimo will maintain its hold on power, largely due to the difficulties imposed on rival parties regarding campaigning and voter registration. Borges Nhamirre, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, asserts, “The election is never difficult for an authoritarian regime. No matter what happens, the final result does not depend on the voters’ will.” Despite receiving considerable support, Mondlane’s entry into the presidential race may accentuate divisions amongst the opposition. Nhamirre suggests, “If this was a fair and free election, at least Mondlane would be the second placed candidate,” indicating the potential for Frelimo to manipulate electoral outcomes to diminish Mondlane’s influence. Mozambique, recognized as one of the world’s poorest countries with a per capita GDP of merely $608, is rich in natural resources. Nonetheless, sociopolitical instability, highlighted by an insurgency in the Cabo Delgado province, has hindered efforts to exploit its vast natural gas reserves. Moreover, extensive corruption scandals have compounded Mozambique’s financial struggles, notably the revelation of $2 billion in concealed loans aimed at funding a fishing fleet. Anne Pitcher, a political science professor at the University of Michigan, asserts the electoral system’s irregularities, stating, “They have already done the rigging before the election. They have made it difficult for people to register to vote. In the areas where they are strong, they then make sure that they do a more comprehensive registration.” Reports from the Public Integrity Center indicate that over 879,000 fraudulent voters exist among the 17 million registered. In the stronghold province of Gaza, an alarming one-third of registered voters have been classified as ghost voters. In light of Mondlane’s candidacy, many young Mozambicans are energized yet divided. Political analyst Dércio Alfazema commented, “People are not very satisfied with the country’s situation and many voters will vote against Frelimo. But I do not think these votes will be enough to remove Frelimo from power.”
The political situation in Mozambique has been dominated by the Frelimo party since the end of colonial rule in 1975. Frelimo’s unchallenged governance has raised concerns regarding the nation’s electoral integrity. The rise of independent candidates, particularly Venâncio Mondlane, has introduced new dynamics, especially among the youthful populace, which constitutes a significant demographic given that the median age in Mozambique is around 17. Despite rising frustrations with the status quo, systemic issues such as voter suppression and electoral manipulation have historically favored Frelimo, complicating the prospects for substantial opposition victories. The backdrop of widespread poverty, accompanying natural resource wealth, and the implications of past civil conflicts continue to affect the current political landscape, as demonstrated in the lead-up to the approaching elections.
The forthcoming elections in Mozambique illustrate a complex interplay between entrenched political structures and emerging opposition candidates. While the ruling Frelimo party appears poised to maintain its dominance, the independent candidacy of Venâncio Mondlane underscores rising youth discontent and the potential for change. However, analysts caution that despite the visible challenge to Frelimo’s authority, structural inequalities and electoral manipulations are likely to impede significant shifts within the political paradigm. Thus, although voter dissatisfaction is palpable, it may not translate into tangible electoral outcomes that could unseat the long-standing ruling party.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
