Negotiations for a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal have stalled as Iranian officials visit Riyadh, expressing a commitment to oppose Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Recent geopolitical dynamics, including regional conflicts and calls for Palestinian statehood, have altered the landscape of these discussions, with the Biden administration facing significant opposition to any agreements with Saudi Arabia without human rights considerations being addressed.
Recently, the potential normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel has faced significant setbacks. This development has coincided with the visit of Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, to Saudi Arabia, where discussions centered on addressing Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Araghchi stated, “Our dialogue continues regarding the developments in the region to prevent the shameless crimes of the Zionist regime in Lebanon, in continuation of the crimes in Gaza.” He further emphasized the need for regional collaboration to halt aggressions in Lebanon. Historically, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been an ally of the United States and is a major purchaser of American weaponry. However, in recent years, a thaw in relations with Iran has been observed. The Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, reiterated their neutral stance regarding the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, while Iran expressed that any provocative actions from “Israel supporters” could lead to retaliatory strikes against their interests, including missile attacks on oil facilities. Commentators suggest that while a direct strike on Gulf oil installations by Iran is seen as unlikely, the country might leverage threats against U.S. interests to assert its power. The attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq refinery in 2019 demonstrated Iran’s capabilities to disrupt a significant portion of global oil supply, raising concerns about further escalations. Prior to recent attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023, a diplomatic pact akin to the Abraham Accords that would formalize Saudi-Israeli relations was being actively pursued by the Biden administration. However, these aspirations have been recalibrated in light of new demands for addressing Palestinian statehood before any security arrangements can be made. Robert Greenway, a former high-ranking National Security Council official, indicated that the progress towards this agreement had always been tenuous, stating, “I don’t think we were ever really that close.” Furthermore, a contingent of Democratic senators explicitly voiced their opposition to a treaty with Saudi Arabia, citing concerns over human rights and potential military applications of nuclear technology. The events of October 7 have shifted the Saudis’ demands to explicitly include a pathway to Palestinian statehood as a prerequisite for advancing talks with Israel. Former Deputy National Security Adviser Victoria Coates remains hopeful for future cooperation, suggesting that negotiations will unfold depending on the Congressional landscape.
The article discusses the complexities surrounding Saudi Arabia’s potential deal with Israel, which has seen diminished prospects due to increased interactions with Iran and regional geopolitical tensions. The history of Iran’s military actions, particularly concerning its neighbors and the significance of oil supply disruptions, underscores the strategic calculations involved in these diplomatic discussions. With the emergence of calls for a Palestinian state becoming central to Saudi conditions for normalization with Israel, the international landscape is transforming, impacting U.S. interests in the region.
The trajectory of Saudi-Israeli relations appears to have become increasingly complicated, particularly in the wake of recent Iranian diplomatic maneuvers and the renewed focus on Palestinian statehood. The complexities of geopolitical alliances, the ramifications of military threats, and the influence of domestic political considerations in the U.S. all contribute to an uncertain future for any potential normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Original Source: www.foxnews.com
