Egypt has delivered its second weapons shipment to Somalia this month, involving anti-aircraft guns and artillery, amidst rising tensions with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Somalia’s relationship with Ethiopia has deteriorated, particularly following Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland. Concerns have arisen regarding the potential for these weapons to empower extremist groups like al-Shabaab, posing risks within the already fragile Somali military landscape.
On September 23, 2024, Egypt conducted the delivery of its second arms shipment to Somalia within a span of a single month, indicating a potential escalation of military dynamics in the Horn of Africa. The arms, delivered aboard an Egyptian warship, reportedly comprised anti-aircraft guns and artillery, which augments the risk of a direct military confrontation involving Egypt, Ethiopia, Somalia, the self-declared state of Somaliland, and possibly other regional stakeholders. Throughout 2024, Egypt has fostered closer relations with Somalia, both nations appearing to distance themselves from Ethiopia amid escalating tensions primarily centered on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This dam, situated on the Ethiopian side of the Nile River near the Sudanese border, has become a point of contention since its construction began in 2011. Egypt perceives the dam as a direct threat to its crucial water supply. Despite various negotiation attempts, including a U.S.-facilitated effort in 2019, the concerned nations have yet to find a sustainable agreement. Somalia expressed its dissatisfaction earlier this year when Ethiopia entered into a preliminary agreement with Somaliland, allowing Ethiopia to lease territorial land for a port in exchange for potential acknowledgment of Somaliland’s independence, a notion Somalia vehemently disputes as it regards Somaliland as integral to its territory. Following the Egyptian arms shipment, the Somaliland administration voiced apprehensions regarding the potential for these weapons to be acquired by extremist groups, such as al-Shabaab, affiliated with al-Qaeda in East Africa. Experts have voiced concerns over the implications of Egypt’s military support for Somalia at a time when the Somali government faces significant weaknesses and al-Shabaab has shown its capability to compromise military defenses. Ethiopia’s troop presence in Somalia exceeds 3,000 soldiers, whose potential withdrawal due to ongoing disputes could significantly exacerbate the fragile situation within Somalia’s military framework.
The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa is marked by a complex web of alliances and animosities, particularly involving Egypt, Ethiopia, and Somalia. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) serves as a pivotal issue, intensifying hostilities between Egypt and Ethiopia, the latter being perceived by Egypt as a threat to its Nile waters. Somalia’s position has been further complicated by the relationship between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a region seeking independence, which Ethiopia appears willing to acknowledge through strategic agreements. In this tumultuous environment, Egypt’s recent arms shipments to Somalia are indicative of its assertive military strategy in response to perceived Ethiopian provocations.
In summary, Egypt’s recent arms deliveries to Somalia signal a significant shift in the security dynamics of the Horn of Africa, as Cairo positions itself against Ethiopia regarding critical issues such as the Nile dam. The increased military support to Somalia could not only jeopardize regional stability but also embolden extremist groups, notably al-Shabaab. As both Egypt and Somalia navigate their evolving relationship amid rising tensions, the broader implications for neighboring states and regional security remain a pressing concern.
Original Source: www.fdd.org
