The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre forecasts above-normal rainfall for the Greater Horn of Africa for June to September 2024, predicting significant implications for agriculture and health, with a heightened risk of flooding primarily in South Sudan and Sudan. This forecast is crucial for sector planning and reflects historical weather patterns.
The Greater Horn of Africa is expected to experience above-normal rainfall from June to September 2024, encompassing key areas including Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and parts of Sudan. This forecast has been provided by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), recognized as a regional climate center alongside the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This period is crucial as it constitutes a major rainy season in the northern and western segments of the Greater Horn of Africa, accounting for over 90% of the region’s annual rainfall in the north and 40% in the south. The predicted wetter conditions for June to September reflect historical patterns observed in 1998 and 2010, with an anticipated risk of flooding in South Sudan and Sudan. Dr. Guleid Artan, the Director of ICPAC, has highlighted these concerns, particularly for nations that have recently dealt with severe flooding disasters during the dry season that extends from June to September. Those nations include Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, the United Republic of Tanzania, along with specific regions in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda. Seasonal climate forecasts such as this are critical for strategizing in sectors like agriculture, health care, and water resource management. They are essential components of the WMO’s Early Warnings for All initiative and foster informed decision-making. The forecast was shared during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, which convenes climate scientists, governmental bodies, and organizations involved in climate-sensitive sectors. For over twenty years, the WMO has facilitated regional climate outlook forums that deliver actionable climate forecasts aimed at preserving lives and livelihoods while bolstering essential sectors including agriculture, food security, water management, health care, and disaster risk management. ICPAC, in accordance with WMO guidelines, employs an objective seasonal forecasting method that integrates initialized seasonal forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) supplemented with three calibration techniques. An early to normal onset of rains is anticipated in regions such as central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan, while a delayed onset is likely in Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan. The temperature forecast indicates a higher likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions predominantly over northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
The Greater Horn of Africa is experiencing significant climate variability that affects agricultural productivity, water availability, and overall livelihoods. Understanding climate patterns and seasonal forecasts is vital for managing risks associated with droughts and floods. The issuance of seasonal climate forecasts, particularly from reputable organizations like ICPAC, is critical for enabling countries in this region to prepare for varying weather conditions that could impact their economies and food security. Given the historical context and reliance on rainfall in this part of Africa, accurate predictions can play a pivotal role in developing proactive strategies to mitigate climate-related disasters.
The forecast for above-normal rainfall from June to September 2024 in the Greater Horn of Africa points to potential ecological and humanitarian impacts, with significant implications for agriculture, health, and water strategies in the region. The risk of flooding, especially in South Sudan and Sudan, calls for heightened preparedness and responsive measures in affected nations, particularly those recovering from recent flooding disasters. An understanding of these trends is vital for effective decision-making and risk management within the region’s key sectors.
Original Source: wmo.int
